***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2020.-20.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 10.0 12.6 14.4 0.5 61.8 53.0 10.6 11.9 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 9.0 11.0 13.8 0.3 57.8 50.7 10.2 10.7 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 12.0 14.3 14.3 0.3 55.8 50.6 11.9 14.1 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 7.3 9.8 11.7 0.5 61.1 54.9 8.0 8.7 10.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 8.4 11.3 12.1 0.3 55.8 51.8 9.8 10.9 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 10.9 10.7 10.1 0.6 65.0 56.9 8.8 10.0 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 10.2 12.2 13.9 0.4 57.9 51.8 10.0 11.5 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 3.7 5.7 9.9 0.2 52.5 51.7 4.1 5.6 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 9.9 11.8 12.2 0.2 55.0 51.1 10.4 11.5 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 9.6 11.5 10.6 0.3 53.2 51.6 10.1 11.4 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 9.2 11.1 11.6 0.1 52.6 50.7 10.0 11.0 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 8.3 10.1 10.7 0.2 54.0 51.7 8.4 9.8 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 8.7 10.3 10.2 0.0 50.7 50.7 9.3 10.3 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 10.0 12.0 11.8 0.0 51.5 49.1 10.4 11.9 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 10.7 12.9 13.6 0.7 65.4 57.5 11.1 12.2 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 9.8 12.1 11.0 0.2 55.6 51.9 9.9 11.9 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 10.1 12.8 13.4 0.3 58.7 50.5 10.5 11.7 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 8.2 10.2 9.8 0.1 52.6 50.0 9.2 10.1 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 9.8 12.1 13.8 0.3 57.0 50.2 10.3 11.5 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 4.7 6.5 8.0 0.0 52.1 50.0 4.9 6.4 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 9.5 11.8 13.5 0.3 57.0 52.0 10.2 11.5 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 9.1 11.6 13.6 0.2 59.0 49.9 9.0 10.4 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 9.0 11.8 13.8 0.1 55.1 49.3 9.4 10.7 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 9.4 11.6 11.9 0.1 53.9 49.9 9.9 11.1 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 10.1 12.8 13.4 0.5 62.5 54.2 9.9 12.2 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 9.0 10.9 9.9 0.2 54.9 52.3 9.2 10.8 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 10.1 12.5 13.9 0.6 62.9 54.2 9.9 11.8 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 8.3 11.0 12.1 0.6 63.3 56.1 9.2 9.9 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 7.2 9.7 9.2 0.0 51.6 49.2 7.9 9.7 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 9.8 12.2 14.1 0.3 57.3 51.0 10.5 11.4 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------