***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2020.-13.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 12.9 14.0 16.9 2.3 86.1 80.4 9.6 11.4 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 12.8 13.7 16.0 1.7 77.8 74.1 10.1 10.9 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 14.8 15.4 16.6 1.8 81.6 76.6 12.9 14.1 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 11.0 11.9 14.0 2.0 83.2 79.4 8.5 9.4 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 11.8 12.7 14.9 1.9 82.2 78.2 8.9 9.7 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 10.9 12.0 12.3 2.2 86.1 83.0 8.5 9.7 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 12.6 13.0 16.0 1.7 77.2 73.8 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 6.8 8.8 12.6 2.2 90.0 82.9 4.6 5.4 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 12.9 13.6 14.8 1.7 79.6 76.3 10.4 11.5 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 12.8 13.8 13.2 2.0 85.6 79.5 10.3 11.1 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 12.5 13.2 14.5 1.7 81.7 77.0 9.8 10.5 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 10.8 12.0 13.7 2.2 89.0 82.6 8.0 9.2 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 11.4 11.7 12.8 1.4 71.8 71.0 8.9 10.3 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 13.2 14.5 14.6 1.9 86.3 78.6 11.3 12.0 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 13.6 14.2 16.2 2.0 82.7 80.2 10.9 12.4 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 12.9 13.3 13.7 1.6 76.8 74.8 10.7 11.4 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 13.0 13.6 15.5 1.6 76.3 72.7 11.4 12.0 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 11.1 13.4 12.7 2.0 87.6 80.8 8.8 10.0 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 12.8 13.3 16.1 1.7 77.8 74.0 10.5 11.7 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 8.1 9.5 11.1 2.3 89.5 83.7 5.0 5.7 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 12.5 13.5 16.0 1.9 82.8 78.5 9.9 10.9 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 12.1 12.9 15.8 1.6 76.5 72.9 10.1 10.9 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 12.5 13.2 16.1 1.7 78.2 74.4 9.9 10.9 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 12.8 14.2 14.6 1.8 85.2 77.5 10.6 11.3 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 13.2 14.3 16.3 2.3 85.4 80.8 9.7 10.8 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 11.5 12.5 12.3 1.8 82.0 77.4 9.5 10.3 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 14.0 15.4 16.5 2.3 85.9 80.8 9.6 11.3 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 11.3 12.1 14.5 1.9 81.6 79.1 8.8 9.9 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 10.7 12.0 12.0 2.0 87.0 80.4 8.7 9.2 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 13.4 14.3 16.4 1.8 80.0 75.5 10.5 11.9 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------