***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2015.-04.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 30.5 50.6 31.8 89.6 53.1 47.3 33.1 48.7 57.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 26.8 43.3 33.0 85.5 48.8 45.5 33.2 43.7 57.3 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 33.0 53.5 32.4 88.4 52.1 47.1 39.1 52.2 60.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 71.6 70.3 40.1 97.3 56.7 50.1 39.5 61.8 84.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 45.9 38.8 39.6 94.3 54.4 49.4 25.3 36.9 59.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 44.2 44.6 46.9 100.0 61.1 51.7 25.0 37.2 56.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 29.3 48.8 33.8 88.7 49.6 46.9 36.3 49.0 56.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 43.4 66.1 39.5 84.7 52.7 45.9 49.6 61.4 86.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 27.7 42.2 37.1 87.7 51.0 46.5 34.5 42.2 56.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 34.6 46.5 40.2 83.5 50.1 44.9 40.0 46.5 51.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 30.9 46.2 33.3 88.9 57.0 47.6 24.9 43.5 55.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 25.7 44.6 33.1 90.5 56.7 48.5 26.4 39.9 60.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 48.2 48.6 38.6 96.5 61.0 51.6 26.2 45.2 49.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 41.9 61.5 42.0 87.3 50.1 45.3 47.8 61.5 71.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 43.5 48.7 39.5 99.8 60.2 51.0 29.0 36.1 62.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 41.6 42.5 35.9 94.1 59.2 49.9 22.7 38.6 45.2 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 28.7 40.8 34.1 85.1 50.3 45.6 30.6 40.6 53.3 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 36.3 46.4 46.7 85.8 49.1 44.3 38.9 47.3 63.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 29.6 46.8 32.4 85.3 50.4 45.4 35.3 46.8 56.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 45.5 59.1 58.7 92.0 54.2 48.3 45.7 58.4 71.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 32.7 53.2 32.5 87.8 52.9 46.6 41.3 52.7 61.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 26.6 43.7 34.2 82.4 50.1 43.7 32.6 43.2 57.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 29.1 47.2 32.7 85.9 51.6 45.2 33.5 46.2 53.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 34.2 57.8 39.7 85.9 50.4 44.7 36.9 57.4 67.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 59.9 58.9 38.9 94.1 55.0 48.6 45.1 56.1 61.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 36.4 44.6 37.4 107.2 62.8 54.6 24.6 29.5 50.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 56.7 51.5 36.5 90.3 52.9 47.0 30.3 50.7 60.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 52.7 52.1 39.3 96.1 58.1 49.5 24.2 47.2 65.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 59.3 77.6 50.0 88.2 47.6 45.8 62.2 80.1 92.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 27.0 41.7 32.7 86.6 50.4 45.8 28.7 41.3 59.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------