***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2015.-04.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.6 10.1 8.1 97.6 65.1 49.0 0.9 7.5 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.3 11.8 8.6 99.9 63.5 51.2 0.9 5.2 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.6 9.6 8.5 98.0 62.5 51.3 3.3 7.5 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 19.2 19.1 8.5 86.5 66.4 51.6 6.1 14.5 18.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.4 18.3 8.4 85.5 64.1 50.3 5.8 10.4 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.7 22.2 11.1 104.7 65.5 51.1 1.8 7.4 22.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 7.5 12.0 8.8 101.4 61.6 51.5 0.7 5.8 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.2 17.3 8.7 70.7 57.1 46.1 6.0 16.3 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.8 8.4 82.1 60.8 49.1 4.7 11.1 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 7.6 15.4 9.3 76.2 59.3 47.5 6.9 14.3 20.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 16.4 16.2 7.1 76.9 62.5 47.4 3.6 12.7 21.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.9 14.6 7.0 74.4 60.3 46.1 2.5 6.3 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.6 16.3 8.9 95.9 65.0 50.8 1.9 7.3 16.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.3 18.8 11.9 106.0 63.5 53.4 7.6 11.0 21.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.8 16.0 7.5 76.9 66.7 50.8 1.9 6.1 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.7 11.7 7.7 86.0 63.0 49.7 1.4 7.4 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 5.6 9.7 8.0 88.1 60.9 48.9 0.4 3.8 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 6.2 16.3 11.7 82.7 60.7 49.3 5.3 10.5 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.6 10.7 8.5 100.7 63.9 51.8 3.2 7.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.2 13.0 13.3 75.9 54.5 47.9 5.5 11.5 15.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.6 15.0 8.2 93.6 62.8 50.6 4.2 10.3 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 7.2 10.5 8.0 87.2 61.5 49.0 0.9 5.5 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.9 12.3 8.8 102.2 64.5 52.2 4.3 8.0 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.3 13.6 10.5 91.5 61.4 50.5 3.9 10.6 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 13.5 21.5 9.4 92.3 64.7 49.5 1.6 9.1 22.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.4 15.4 7.9 93.5 61.4 50.4 1.4 5.1 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.9 12.9 9.3 95.6 64.3 49.1 1.5 5.9 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.3 17.6 7.8 80.9 65.9 51.2 4.4 9.8 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.3 26.3 12.7 85.1 58.7 49.9 8.0 15.3 29.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.2 10.1 8.7 102.7 64.8 51.8 1.3 5.4 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------