***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2015.-27.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 2.4 9.9 6.2 76.7 60.4 44.7 2.4 5.8 14.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 7.6 6.9 7.5 72.2 56.4 45.3 1.9 4.9 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 2.9 7.7 5.8 66.6 53.3 42.0 3.5 6.8 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 2.8 11.2 8.8 86.1 62.2 42.5 2.4 6.7 12.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 1.9 5.7 8.0 77.2 58.5 41.6 1.6 4.9 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.6 3.7 9.2 68.9 52.3 44.1 0.8 3.1 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.1 3.7 7.9 76.4 57.2 45.3 2.1 2.8 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 3.9 10.4 8.1 69.4 53.2 40.4 4.5 9.5 12.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 1.3 4.5 7.4 70.4 56.4 40.9 1.7 3.2 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 2.6 8.3 8.4 70.7 52.8 40.6 1.1 6.7 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 1.4 3.9 6.6 68.5 53.8 40.6 1.0 3.3 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 1.9 5.5 6.2 65.2 56.3 40.2 1.0 4.3 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 6.8 5.8 7.4 67.1 56.0 44.7 1.2 3.7 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 2.0 4.9 8.6 70.3 49.9 41.9 1.3 4.9 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 1.3 9.3 8.4 84.9 64.0 42.1 1.1 2.8 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 1.2 3.8 6.7 66.5 54.0 41.2 1.8 2.8 5.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 1.6 6.5 8.2 75.1 60.2 46.2 0.9 3.3 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 2.0 5.3 9.6 73.1 49.9 41.3 2.2 5.3 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.3 4.6 6.9 68.9 54.9 44.7 1.9 4.1 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 3.4 8.9 13.0 79.6 52.2 42.6 3.2 8.7 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 2.0 7.7 6.3 70.4 59.4 41.9 2.2 4.8 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.3 8.0 71.1 58.0 45.9 0.6 5.8 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 2.1 4.9 6.6 68.3 53.4 43.5 2.7 4.6 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 1.8 4.7 7.6 68.4 48.3 41.0 1.8 5.0 9.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 3.3 9.6 7.8 83.6 63.2 43.7 2.6 7.8 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.5 5.9 6.3 69.1 61.7 46.6 1.0 3.2 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.5 9.3 7.2 77.3 59.4 44.0 3.6 5.9 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.1 6.5 8.2 77.9 59.7 40.7 0.3 4.8 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 3.4 8.4 10.6 74.9 48.9 41.7 4.2 8.9 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.5 5.3 6.9 70.2 53.8 43.6 1.1 4.9 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------