***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2015.-20.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 4.7 18.1 9.4 98.1 63.3 45.1 2.6 10.4 19.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.1 13.2 9.6 98.0 65.8 46.6 4.0 9.2 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 12.2 15.3 9.4 97.1 64.0 46.5 1.6 7.6 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.4 18.5 10.8 107.2 67.7 51.3 2.8 8.8 15.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.8 16.0 10.3 97.9 64.4 49.5 2.8 8.1 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.1 11.8 96.9 61.5 50.4 2.9 7.5 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.8 13.8 10.1 105.1 65.3 48.8 3.4 9.2 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 19.4 24.0 11.3 104.3 62.7 51.4 7.7 15.3 28.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 14.6 16.3 9.8 90.7 62.8 47.9 3.4 11.1 21.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 13.4 14.9 11.0 95.0 62.1 48.4 6.6 10.5 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 13.6 16.5 9.1 106.0 65.9 50.4 2.3 11.4 16.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.7 15.0 9.0 109.9 66.1 51.8 2.8 10.3 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.7 18.9 9.9 107.7 66.9 52.8 2.4 7.8 16.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 4.3 27.7 12.5 99.2 62.9 44.4 3.6 10.4 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.3 13.8 11.2 120.2 72.3 52.4 1.6 5.0 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.5 10.6 9.7 110.5 66.9 51.9 2.6 5.2 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 3.2 21.9 11.2 112.4 70.2 48.4 1.9 7.9 17.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 7.5 21.3 13.5 101.7 61.9 49.1 6.1 15.1 25.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.4 16.2 9.5 97.4 64.9 46.1 3.7 7.4 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 22.8 23.1 17.7 117.6 65.6 53.9 8.0 19.5 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.3 21.4 8.6 91.2 64.4 45.2 2.6 9.6 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 3.7 15.9 11.3 104.1 68.4 47.3 2.7 9.7 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.9 15.7 9.7 98.4 65.1 45.0 2.1 10.9 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.3 17.0 11.7 98.8 63.1 46.6 4.1 9.8 21.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 17.1 27.5 11.3 106.2 62.8 48.8 4.7 12.5 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 12.1 18.7 7.9 99.1 66.6 55.4 2.3 9.4 18.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.4 11.5 11.1 103.0 61.9 46.6 2.3 9.0 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.4 16.4 10.8 111.0 69.5 52.0 1.2 7.9 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 9.1 23.7 14.7 106.3 60.2 49.9 13.1 18.0 26.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.9 11.5 9.4 95.8 63.5 45.7 6.0 8.9 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------