***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2015.-13.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 0.8 7.7 8.1 85.1 63.4 43.8 0.6 1.8 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.0 6.6 7.3 74.5 54.1 43.1 1.8 4.3 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 1.4 9.1 8.7 90.8 66.0 46.4 1.2 3.2 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.5 17.7 12.0 108.3 73.0 54.5 1.0 6.7 13.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 5.1 9.2 12.8 114.8 69.5 57.6 1.4 3.0 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 1.6 9.5 14.8 138.1 73.6 57.5 1.4 3.4 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.0 4.9 7.0 74.2 56.5 42.7 0.8 4.0 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 4.5 17.2 11.4 97.6 65.1 50.0 2.3 9.8 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.4 7.7 11.5 107.5 66.1 54.2 1.0 3.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 2.6 9.0 11.5 92.1 61.3 49.6 2.7 5.1 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 6.9 11.7 10.5 105.6 66.2 52.0 0.3 3.3 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.1 11.3 10.9 115.3 70.0 51.7 1.7 7.1 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 1.4 9.6 12.3 118.2 73.6 52.2 0.2 3.4 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 9.7 3.3 9.0 74.6 50.9 42.2 2.1 3.3 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.3 4.6 12.3 117.3 72.2 56.8 0.2 1.9 3.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.3 10.6 11.7 114.4 70.9 53.9 0.4 4.6 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 1.5 4.8 6.7 66.4 53.7 39.3 1.6 3.3 13.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.6 10.1 11.9 85.5 57.7 47.4 1.8 5.1 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.5 6.2 7.4 76.5 55.0 42.9 1.3 5.4 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.2 18.1 14.8 100.9 65.6 52.7 4.4 10.4 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.3 8.7 9.4 95.6 67.6 50.3 1.6 5.2 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.8 7.9 7.0 67.8 52.5 39.4 2.5 6.4 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 1.5 4.6 7.7 76.7 55.4 41.4 1.3 3.4 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 7.2 4.9 10.0 83.9 56.9 45.6 1.4 2.6 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 1.7 8.9 10.4 93.0 67.1 48.9 1.3 3.4 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 4.0 11.2 15.2 164.6 78.6 61.2 0.3 1.8 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 1.3 9.7 8.9 84.2 62.0 45.0 1.7 3.0 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.0 8.4 12.4 114.1 72.9 55.4 0.6 1.7 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.6 21.1 11.9 87.6 58.9 47.2 6.1 14.3 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 1.8 8.5 7.7 79.7 57.1 45.1 2.0 3.8 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------