***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2015.-04.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 22.0 21.7 21.4 0.8 57.9 57.3 19.4 21.5 22.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 22.7 22.4 21.4 0.7 54.6 56.3 21.1 22.3 23.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 22.5 22.2 21.4 0.8 55.3 56.7 20.5 22.1 23.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 15.2 14.5 19.5 0.7 52.8 56.2 13.4 14.5 14.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 23.0 22.4 19.8 0.8 55.6 57.0 20.9 22.4 23.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 21.6 21.6 18.4 0.8 54.0 56.9 19.0 21.1 22.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 22.4 22.4 21.3 0.7 55.3 56.6 20.6 22.1 22.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 11.7 12.4 18.8 1.1 60.3 59.3 10.4 11.3 12.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 22.6 22.3 20.3 0.8 56.8 57.4 20.5 21.9 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 22.4 22.1 19.2 0.9 57.7 58.1 20.6 21.9 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 22.8 22.6 19.8 1.0 58.1 58.6 20.6 22.2 23.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 22.1 22.4 19.8 1.1 60.7 59.8 19.8 21.6 23.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 23.0 23.0 19.3 0.9 56.2 58.0 21.3 22.4 23.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 23.1 23.0 19.9 0.7 55.5 56.4 21.0 22.6 23.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 21.9 21.5 19.9 0.7 55.3 57.3 20.5 21.3 22.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 23.6 23.5 19.6 0.9 57.0 58.0 20.9 23.0 23.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 21.9 21.5 20.7 0.3 51.5 53.7 19.9 21.5 22.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 21.9 21.7 18.6 0.8 55.4 57.5 20.2 21.5 22.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 22.3 22.1 21.6 0.8 55.2 56.7 20.6 21.8 23.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 18.3 18.2 16.5 0.8 54.8 57.1 16.0 18.0 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 22.5 22.2 20.9 0.8 56.3 56.7 20.8 22.0 23.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 22.5 22.4 20.8 0.3 52.8 53.9 21.0 22.0 23.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 22.4 22.4 21.5 0.8 56.0 57.6 20.5 22.0 23.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 22.7 22.3 20.0 0.8 54.8 57.0 20.5 22.3 23.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 22.0 21.6 19.7 0.7 56.3 56.3 20.7 21.4 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 22.4 22.5 19.3 0.9 55.3 57.6 20.8 21.9 23.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 22.4 22.2 20.5 0.8 57.5 57.0 20.7 22.0 22.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 22.4 21.9 19.9 0.8 54.2 57.2 20.3 21.9 22.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 17.2 17.1 17.7 0.8 54.1 57.4 15.4 16.8 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 22.3 22.2 21.6 0.8 55.9 57.0 20.8 21.8 23.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------