***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2015.-27.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 23.3 24.0 23.8 1.4 67.4 61.3 21.9 22.9 24.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 23.8 24.8 23.8 1.3 65.1 60.8 21.8 23.2 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 24.1 25.0 23.7 1.3 65.7 60.7 21.5 23.6 25.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 16.6 16.5 21.6 0.8 61.3 56.7 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 24.8 25.5 22.0 1.1 66.3 58.6 21.9 24.3 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 23.5 24.3 20.5 1.0 65.4 59.9 21.1 23.0 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 23.1 24.5 23.6 1.3 64.5 60.4 21.5 22.6 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.4 14.0 20.9 1.4 71.5 62.1 10.5 12.9 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 23.9 25.2 22.5 1.3 68.8 60.1 21.6 23.2 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 23.8 24.7 21.4 1.3 70.2 61.0 21.0 23.0 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 23.9 25.4 21.9 1.3 69.2 60.9 21.8 23.3 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 23.0 24.7 21.9 1.4 69.9 61.9 21.0 22.3 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 24.0 25.5 21.4 1.1 65.2 60.3 22.1 23.3 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 23.9 24.7 22.0 1.2 63.1 60.0 21.2 23.1 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 23.8 24.2 21.9 0.8 60.4 56.5 22.5 23.2 24.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 24.7 25.9 21.7 1.1 66.5 60.1 22.7 24.1 25.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 22.7 23.9 22.9 0.9 60.1 57.5 21.4 22.1 24.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 22.8 24.2 20.7 1.3 69.7 60.7 20.3 22.3 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 23.3 24.6 23.9 1.4 65.6 61.5 21.3 22.6 24.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 19.3 20.2 18.7 1.2 67.3 59.9 15.8 18.7 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 24.1 25.0 23.1 1.2 67.4 59.8 21.4 23.5 25.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 23.6 24.4 22.9 0.9 59.1 57.8 21.7 22.8 25.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 23.9 24.9 23.7 1.5 65.9 62.1 21.5 23.3 25.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 23.5 24.8 22.1 1.3 67.1 60.6 21.5 22.8 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 23.4 23.7 21.9 1.1 62.8 58.9 21.8 23.0 23.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 24.1 24.8 21.4 1.1 64.4 60.0 21.7 23.6 24.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 23.4 24.4 22.8 1.3 66.1 60.9 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 24.0 24.1 22.0 0.8 62.0 57.2 22.2 23.6 24.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.1 20.3 19.8 1.2 69.3 60.2 15.9 17.3 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 23.5 24.7 24.0 1.4 65.7 61.5 21.6 23.0 24.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------