***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2015.-20.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 24.0 24.1 23.9 0.1 58.3 52.4 22.3 23.7 24.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 22.0 23.9 23.8 -0.2 55.9 50.4 22.0 23.6 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 24.9 24.6 23.8 -0.1 56.9 50.6 22.2 24.5 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 15.3 16.8 22.0 -0.1 54.4 50.0 15.5 16.6 17.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 25.1 25.1 22.3 0.1 57.1 51.6 23.1 24.8 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 24.2 23.9 20.8 0.3 54.5 53.1 22.3 23.6 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 21.9 23.8 23.7 -0.2 55.0 50.2 21.6 23.3 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.2 14.2 21.2 0.5 59.1 54.8 12.2 13.9 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 24.9 25.1 22.7 0.2 59.3 52.5 22.9 24.7 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 24.7 24.6 21.6 0.3 58.8 53.6 22.8 24.3 24.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 24.9 24.9 22.3 0.4 58.8 54.1 23.4 24.6 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 24.4 24.3 22.3 0.6 58.6 55.0 22.3 23.9 25.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 25.5 25.2 21.8 0.4 55.2 53.2 23.2 24.9 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 21.6 24.5 22.0 -0.3 55.5 49.0 22.6 23.5 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 23.0 24.6 22.4 -0.1 56.5 50.0 23.4 24.2 24.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 25.8 25.5 22.1 0.3 56.3 53.2 24.3 25.3 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 20.8 22.1 22.9 -0.7 45.6 45.5 21.4 22.6 24.5 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 21.1 23.5 20.9 0.2 56.9 52.5 22.0 23.0 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 21.7 23.8 23.9 -0.1 57.1 51.0 22.2 23.4 24.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 18.1 19.8 18.9 0.2 53.0 52.1 17.8 19.7 20.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 24.9 24.7 23.3 0.0 57.8 51.4 22.9 24.6 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 21.6 22.5 22.9 -0.7 45.4 45.7 21.3 23.5 25.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 24.0 24.5 23.7 0.0 59.5 51.6 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 22.0 24.1 22.2 0.0 57.1 50.9 22.7 23.9 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 24.3 24.3 22.1 -0.1 56.9 51.2 22.5 24.0 24.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 25.3 25.2 21.8 0.3 53.6 52.8 23.0 24.8 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 24.3 24.3 22.9 0.1 57.9 52.3 22.5 24.0 24.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 23.1 24.6 22.4 0.0 56.2 50.7 23.3 24.0 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 17.3 19.8 19.9 0.1 55.7 52.0 16.9 19.5 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 21.9 24.1 24.0 0.0 57.6 51.2 21.9 23.5 24.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------