***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2015.-13.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 94 6 0 100 21.3 20.7 21.6 -3.2 15.2 17.3 24.0 25.2 26.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 96 4 0 100 21.4 20.6 21.3 -3.9 14.8 15.6 23.8 25.5 26.3 30 Becej 27400G00 95 5 0 100 21.3 20.4 21.3 -3.7 14.7 16.7 23.9 25.1 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 93 7 0 100 13.3 13.0 19.3 -3.1 17.4 18.7 16.2 17.9 18.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 94 6 0 100 20.9 20.7 20.0 -3.4 16.2 18.2 24.0 25.3 26.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 89 11 0 100 20.7 20.6 18.3 -2.6 19.3 21.7 21.9 23.8 25.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 99 1 0 100 20.5 19.7 21.2 -3.8 14.4 15.0 23.6 25.4 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 89 11 0 100 10.3 9.9 17.9 -3.5 16.6 18.9 11.8 13.5 15.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 93 7 0 100 21.0 20.6 20.8 -3.4 15.9 18.4 23.7 24.9 25.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 89 11 0 100 20.9 20.5 18.9 -3.5 16.5 18.7 23.4 24.3 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 92 8 0 100 21.3 21.0 19.7 -3.4 16.5 18.7 23.5 25.0 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 89 11 0 100 20.0 19.6 19.1 -3.4 16.9 19.3 22.5 23.3 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 92 8 0 100 21.0 21.1 19.6 -3.1 17.2 19.8 23.5 24.6 26.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 98 2 0 100 21.3 20.6 19.4 -4.3 13.5 15.1 23.9 24.5 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 84 16 0 100 21.9 21.5 21.9 -2.5 18.6 21.3 24.2 25.5 26.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 90 10 0 100 21.6 21.3 19.9 -3.1 17.1 19.9 24.0 25.6 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 100 0 0 100 20.0 19.4 20.4 -4.3 14.1 13.3 23.2 24.4 26.0 30 Palic 37000G16 94 6 0 100 20.3 19.6 17.7 -3.9 15.0 17.4 22.7 23.1 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 94 6 0 100 21.4 20.8 21.4 -3.8 15.1 16.5 23.4 25.2 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 87 13 0 100 16.3 15.9 15.9 -3.6 16.7 19.2 17.9 19.7 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 95 5 0 100 21.0 20.3 21.2 -3.6 14.9 17.1 23.8 25.5 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 99 1 0 100 20.8 20.1 20.5 -4.3 14.1 13.8 23.6 25.0 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 93 7 0 100 21.4 20.8 21.3 -3.6 15.3 17.5 24.0 25.3 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 98 2 0 100 21.3 19.8 19.4 -4.1 13.9 16.0 23.5 24.2 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 94 6 0 100 21.2 20.8 20.3 -3.3 15.6 17.0 23.6 25.2 26.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 90 10 0 100 21.6 21.4 19.0 -3.1 18.1 20.3 22.5 25.1 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 94 6 0 100 21.5 21.0 20.9 -3.2 15.2 16.9 23.7 25.1 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 86 14 0 100 22.2 21.8 20.6 -2.8 18.3 20.5 24.0 25.2 26.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 93 7 0 100 15.9 15.3 16.8 -4.0 15.2 17.3 17.5 18.7 19.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 95 5 0 100 21.4 20.7 21.6 -3.6 15.1 16.5 23.6 25.0 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------