***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2015.-04.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 10.1 10.6 13.3 -0.2 46.2 45.9 10.1 10.8 11.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 9.3 10.3 12.8 -0.5 38.6 40.5 10.1 10.5 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 12.1 12.3 13.0 -0.3 43.4 43.7 12.1 12.7 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 7.7 8.1 10.7 -0.4 41.1 42.3 7.8 8.2 9.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 9.0 9.3 10.7 -0.3 41.4 43.7 8.8 9.9 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 8.3 8.8 9.2 0.0 50.2 48.9 8.3 8.8 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 10.2 10.5 12.9 -0.5 37.7 41.1 10.3 11.0 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 4.9 4.7 9.2 -0.1 48.9 47.0 3.9 4.7 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.2 10.6 11.2 -0.1 45.6 46.6 10.1 11.0 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 10.8 10.2 9.7 -0.2 45.6 45.4 9.8 10.5 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 10.6 9.7 10.4 -0.2 44.5 45.7 9.4 10.4 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.0 10.1 -0.1 50.2 47.7 8.4 8.9 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 8.8 9.8 9.6 -0.1 48.9 46.8 9.2 9.8 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 10.4 10.5 11.0 -0.5 37.7 39.0 10.5 11.1 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 10.5 11.2 11.9 -0.1 49.8 48.4 10.8 11.3 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 10.3 10.9 10.2 -0.1 48.0 46.8 10.2 11.0 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 10.2 10.2 12.1 -0.7 32.1 36.5 10.2 11.0 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 8.6 9.2 9.1 -0.3 43.6 43.7 8.4 9.4 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 10.1 10.4 12.8 -0.5 40.1 41.5 10.0 10.9 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.0 5.3 7.4 -0.3 42.5 43.8 5.0 5.7 6.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.1 12.5 -0.2 44.0 45.3 9.5 10.6 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 9.2 9.4 12.2 -0.7 31.7 35.6 9.4 10.3 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 10.6 9.7 12.7 -0.4 41.9 43.0 9.4 10.2 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 10.9 10.2 11.0 -0.4 43.2 42.9 9.8 10.6 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 10.3 10.3 11.8 -0.3 42.4 44.1 9.6 11.4 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.8 9.7 -0.2 47.0 45.3 9.1 10.0 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 10.0 10.8 12.4 -0.2 46.1 45.8 10.2 11.3 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 8.6 9.2 11.2 -0.2 47.7 46.2 8.7 9.4 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.7 8.2 8.6 -0.3 43.5 44.2 7.8 8.7 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 10.3 10.8 13.1 -0.4 42.3 42.8 10.4 11.4 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------