***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2015.-04.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 10.0 10.7 12.5 0.9 63.9 60.2 8.6 9.6 11.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.7 12.3 0.9 61.3 59.9 8.5 10.1 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 12.6 13.4 12.3 0.8 61.2 59.4 10.4 12.3 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 8.0 8.1 9.8 0.5 56.3 56.2 5.9 7.5 8.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 9.2 9.3 9.6 0.6 57.9 56.9 7.4 8.6 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.4 8.3 7.8 0.3 55.8 54.5 6.8 8.0 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 10.3 11.2 12.2 0.8 61.7 59.8 8.4 9.9 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 4.2 4.4 8.3 0.8 60.8 59.9 2.9 3.8 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 10.5 10.9 10.2 0.7 61.3 58.0 8.8 10.0 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.1 10.0 8.8 0.7 60.5 58.8 8.2 9.7 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.6 9.9 9.3 0.6 56.7 57.1 8.1 9.1 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.5 8.5 9.1 0.7 59.0 58.2 6.8 8.2 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.1 8.3 0.3 54.9 54.1 7.7 8.9 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.5 10.2 0.6 56.8 58.2 8.9 10.1 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 10.4 11.0 10.5 0.6 58.5 57.2 8.7 10.1 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.4 8.9 0.4 54.3 55.2 8.9 9.9 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 10.5 10.9 11.7 0.7 59.1 58.6 8.1 10.2 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.1 9.5 8.3 0.7 59.4 59.0 7.0 8.7 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.1 10.6 12.3 0.9 61.6 60.3 8.4 9.5 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.9 6.6 0.7 57.2 59.0 3.8 4.8 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 9.8 9.9 11.5 0.7 61.5 58.6 8.5 9.3 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 9.4 9.5 11.7 0.7 57.1 58.8 8.1 8.9 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 9.6 9.8 11.9 0.9 62.1 60.4 8.0 9.1 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.9 10.2 0.7 59.4 58.8 8.5 9.6 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 10.3 10.6 10.9 0.7 61.9 58.7 8.4 9.8 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 9.1 9.0 8.7 0.4 52.2 54.4 7.9 8.8 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 10.9 11.3 11.7 0.9 63.2 60.0 7.9 10.4 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.6 8.9 10.0 0.5 56.9 56.4 7.1 8.1 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 8.1 8.3 7.7 0.7 57.9 59.6 6.5 7.7 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.7 11.5 12.5 0.9 62.1 60.2 8.9 10.0 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------