***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2015.-27.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.6 14.0 0.8 63.3 58.3 10.1 11.0 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 10.1 11.9 13.7 0.7 62.3 58.2 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.3 13.5 13.8 0.7 63.3 58.3 12.5 13.0 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.8 9.0 11.3 0.5 60.4 56.1 7.5 8.3 9.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.6 11.1 0.5 61.4 57.0 9.3 10.1 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 9.5 9.5 9.7 0.8 64.9 61.1 7.9 9.1 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.5 13.6 0.7 61.1 57.5 10.2 11.2 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 5.2 5.8 9.8 0.8 62.3 60.0 4.2 4.8 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.7 11.6 0.6 61.8 58.2 9.7 10.9 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 10.8 11.1 10.2 0.7 60.7 58.3 9.5 10.5 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.9 10.8 0.6 62.3 58.5 9.3 10.5 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.8 10.2 10.7 0.7 64.3 59.8 8.3 9.4 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.3 10.6 9.9 0.5 61.3 57.6 8.8 10.0 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.7 11.5 0.4 58.1 56.4 10.0 11.2 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 11.5 11.5 12.0 0.5 60.3 56.5 10.1 11.3 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.7 10.5 0.6 60.9 58.2 10.4 11.2 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.4 13.0 0.5 59.6 55.5 10.2 11.1 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.0 10.3 9.7 0.6 62.7 58.0 8.9 9.8 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 10.1 11.3 13.7 0.7 63.2 58.6 10.1 11.0 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.8 8.2 0.6 60.2 57.7 5.1 6.3 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.3 11.3 12.9 0.6 62.5 58.2 9.3 11.0 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.8 13.0 0.5 61.2 55.7 9.4 10.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 9.5 11.3 13.4 0.7 64.9 58.9 9.5 10.3 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.5 11.6 0.6 62.6 58.1 9.4 10.9 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 11.8 11.9 12.3 0.6 63.0 57.8 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.5 10.2 0.5 57.9 56.5 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.1 12.4 13.1 0.8 63.4 58.6 10.4 11.6 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.0 10.4 11.6 0.5 61.2 56.9 8.3 9.7 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 9.0 9.2 9.2 0.6 62.1 57.6 7.8 8.6 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 10.2 11.9 13.9 0.7 62.5 58.6 10.2 11.2 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------