***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2015.-20.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 12.2 11.9 14.3 0.0 49.8 48.8 10.6 11.9 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 11.3 10.5 14.0 -0.3 46.3 45.1 10.2 10.7 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 14.3 13.2 14.0 -0.3 45.5 45.8 11.9 14.1 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.1 8.5 11.7 -0.2 47.5 46.2 8.0 8.7 10.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.3 10.6 11.4 -0.2 46.0 46.2 9.8 10.9 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 10.3 10.0 9.9 -0.1 49.9 49.1 8.8 10.0 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.2 14.0 -0.3 47.1 45.7 10.0 11.5 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 6.0 5.6 10.0 0.0 49.8 48.8 4.1 5.6 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.3 11.8 -0.2 46.1 46.3 10.4 11.5 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.1 10.4 -0.2 45.7 45.9 10.1 11.4 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 11.3 11.0 11.1 -0.1 48.8 48.2 10.0 11.0 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 10.1 10.0 11.0 0.0 52.9 50.4 8.4 9.8 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 9.0 10.3 10.2 -0.2 50.4 47.6 9.3 10.3 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.1 11.7 -0.6 39.2 40.6 10.4 11.9 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 10.9 12.1 12.4 -0.1 48.6 47.9 11.1 12.2 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 10.2 11.9 10.9 -0.1 50.6 48.5 9.9 11.9 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 10.5 10.8 13.3 -0.6 39.8 41.5 10.5 11.7 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.5 9.8 9.8 -0.3 42.7 44.5 9.2 10.1 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 11.9 10.9 13.9 -0.3 45.6 44.8 10.3 11.5 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 6.8 5.6 8.3 -0.3 43.2 44.3 4.9 6.4 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.8 11.1 13.2 -0.2 46.9 47.0 10.2 11.5 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 9.4 9.3 13.1 -0.8 35.9 39.7 9.0 10.4 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 11.1 10.7 13.6 -0.3 44.6 44.5 9.4 10.7 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.5 10.9 11.7 -0.4 42.6 43.9 9.9 11.1 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.1 12.7 -0.1 48.6 47.8 9.9 12.2 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.5 10.6 -0.1 46.0 47.5 9.2 10.8 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.4 11.9 13.5 0.0 51.0 48.9 9.9 11.8 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 8.5 9.6 12.0 -0.1 48.6 47.5 9.2 9.9 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.9 8.7 9.3 -0.3 42.6 44.2 7.9 9.7 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.2 14.3 -0.2 47.3 46.4 10.5 11.4 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------