***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2015.-13.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 96 4 0 100 9.3 8.8 12.2 -2.6 12.4 14.0 9.6 11.4 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 100 0 0 100 8.9 8.5 11.2 -3.3 9.2 9.1 10.1 10.9 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 98 2 0 100 11.0 10.5 12.2 -2.6 12.4 14.0 12.9 14.1 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 95 5 0 100 6.6 5.4 10.1 -2.2 13.2 15.8 8.5 9.4 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 91 9 0 100 8.1 7.9 10.5 -2.0 15.8 17.8 8.9 9.7 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 8.0 8.2 9.2 -1.1 25.5 28.7 8.5 9.7 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 100 0 0 100 9.4 8.9 11.6 -3.1 9.4 9.9 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 94 6 0 100 1.8 1.7 8.6 -2.0 19.8 20.6 4.6 5.4 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 85 15 0 100 10.0 10.0 11.3 -1.7 17.5 20.9 10.4 11.5 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 91 9 0 100 9.2 9.2 9.5 -1.9 18.3 20.1 10.3 11.1 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 91 9 0 100 9.0 9.1 10.3 -1.8 18.4 19.7 9.8 10.5 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 89 11 0 100 7.3 7.4 9.6 -1.7 20.9 22.2 8.0 9.2 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 8.5 8.7 10.1 -1.1 25.6 29.4 8.9 10.3 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 99 1 0 100 9.4 9.1 10.5 -2.7 12.4 12.8 11.3 12.0 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 77 23 0 100 10.8 10.5 12.8 -1.2 22.9 27.0 10.9 12.4 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 82 18 0 100 9.8 10.1 10.4 -1.4 22.4 24.8 10.7 11.4 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 100 0 0 100 10.0 9.3 10.7 -3.4 7.7 7.9 11.4 12.0 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 99 1 0 100 7.6 7.7 8.7 -2.1 16.9 17.7 8.8 10.0 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 99 1 0 100 9.2 8.6 11.5 -3.1 10.4 10.5 10.5 11.7 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 93 7 0 100 4.2 4.2 6.7 -2.1 19.0 20.0 5.0 5.7 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 92 8 0 100 9.0 8.5 12.3 -2.1 14.1 16.9 9.9 10.9 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 100 0 0 100 8.7 8.5 11.2 -3.3 9.0 8.8 10.1 10.9 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 98 2 0 100 8.3 7.9 11.8 -2.7 12.0 13.0 9.9 10.9 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 99 1 0 100 8.8 8.7 10.5 -2.4 15.0 15.1 10.6 11.3 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 96 4 0 100 9.0 8.5 11.3 -2.5 11.4 14.4 9.7 10.8 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 9.0 9.1 9.3 -1.4 27.3 27.4 9.5 10.3 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 97 3 0 100 8.5 7.8 11.5 -2.6 11.1 13.6 9.6 11.3 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 85 15 0 100 8.0 8.3 11.3 -1.5 20.5 23.6 8.8 9.9 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 97 3 0 100 6.3 6.8 8.2 -2.0 19.1 19.4 8.7 9.2 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 99 1 0 100 9.4 8.9 11.9 -3.0 10.7 11.1 10.5 11.9 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------