***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.09.2016.-02.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 57.1 52.1 36.8 88.0 52.6 45.8 28.5 51.3 60.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 42.6 35.8 34.3 92.5 50.6 47.1 29.4 35.7 53.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 53.8 55.4 40.3 96.3 58.9 49.0 33.7 49.6 61.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 70.4 60.8 42.9 92.6 54.0 48.0 36.7 59.3 71.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 47.1 38.4 42.9 95.3 54.3 50.3 30.1 37.4 56.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 27.4 53.0 49.1 100.5 58.1 49.8 24.9 38.9 57.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 28.1 42.8 33.7 89.5 50.5 45.6 33.8 42.7 56.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 73.4 80.5 59.1 122.2 69.1 60.3 54.1 60.9 72.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 47.9 48.1 46.9 103.8 57.9 53.1 32.1 43.8 54.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 54.1 56.5 57.7 114.1 63.6 57.0 43.0 47.4 60.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 50.1 47.8 47.2 106.1 60.5 54.4 27.4 45.0 60.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 51.2 63.0 48.6 113.5 65.9 56.8 24.4 44.3 63.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 49.7 49.7 48.7 103.5 58.1 53.0 28.2 45.3 52.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 70.2 67.5 54.7 104.7 61.0 52.8 37.6 62.4 71.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 42.9 50.1 40.1 100.9 63.0 50.9 28.1 34.9 52.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 41.2 38.0 45.1 99.7 57.6 51.7 25.2 35.6 49.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 49.0 44.9 32.6 91.1 50.0 46.9 31.8 44.9 51.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 62.3 61.6 60.9 111.9 61.6 55.3 39.5 55.4 66.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 51.7 47.7 36.4 94.7 53.4 47.9 30.7 46.2 56.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 87.7 79.7 71.6 127.2 70.3 63.2 50.7 60.0 69.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 57.5 57.2 42.8 98.2 57.6 51.0 32.8 53.3 59.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 48.3 43.3 35.9 94.5 50.7 48.6 31.3 41.5 55.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 48.6 44.8 39.9 96.0 57.2 48.6 32.0 42.9 53.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 65.5 68.1 51.6 104.1 59.9 51.3 38.1 57.0 71.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 56.2 51.0 39.6 82.8 46.8 44.2 45.5 51.3 62.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 39.2 50.1 49.1 119.1 67.7 59.1 24.3 32.5 49.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 53.9 46.4 37.7 83.9 49.5 43.8 31.7 47.3 58.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 52.6 55.5 44.0 101.1 61.1 51.1 24.2 45.8 72.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 92.9 101.6 64.1 115.8 64.3 57.5 64.3 79.3 102.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 44.9 39.1 35.1 90.9 53.5 46.3 25.3 38.5 51.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------