***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.09.2016.-02.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9.7 15.2 7.5 96.6 62.6 51.4 1.1 5.6 19.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 5.7 10.8 6.3 95.6 68.4 53.8 1.2 3.9 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 10.1 15.2 7.0 94.4 65.4 52.8 2.1 6.9 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 19.2 25.2 8.5 95.5 68.2 53.1 9.9 14.9 24.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 13.9 18.0 8.6 95.9 66.9 51.6 5.2 9.5 17.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.8 25.7 12.9 135.1 72.5 56.8 2.4 9.1 19.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 5.9 11.4 6.8 103.6 70.6 53.8 1.4 4.1 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 9.4 18.7 10.9 107.8 68.4 51.0 8.1 15.1 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 6.4 13.5 8.1 86.9 61.7 49.8 3.4 11.6 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 9.4 21.5 9.6 92.4 62.9 49.0 8.9 16.2 21.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 15.5 22.7 9.4 107.5 70.3 52.2 8.6 12.6 19.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.0 21.7 10.4 116.8 72.4 52.5 4.6 7.0 19.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.7 19.7 11.6 131.7 74.6 56.8 3.0 8.5 17.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.3 18.5 8.6 90.0 62.3 53.2 6.6 11.1 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 13.1 17.3 7.1 94.2 69.3 51.8 4.2 10.7 16.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 12.7 19.5 10.5 120.7 73.7 55.2 3.7 9.3 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 5.1 10.0 6.9 113.8 71.2 55.5 0.6 3.0 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 7.6 15.0 9.6 85.0 56.4 47.7 6.0 12.7 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 7.2 8.3 6.1 89.8 65.6 52.8 3.5 5.7 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 7.1 15.2 12.5 99.9 63.8 49.7 5.0 11.4 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.9 18.4 7.6 88.4 64.5 49.9 5.3 10.6 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 6.1 10.8 7.0 106.1 67.3 55.5 0.9 4.1 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 9.8 11.2 6.3 88.1 63.7 53.3 4.0 8.5 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.1 14.4 8.1 85.2 59.1 49.8 4.1 9.9 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 13.2 17.1 8.2 91.7 63.6 51.7 5.1 9.6 18.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.4 22.2 11.3 137.1 78.4 57.8 3.5 6.3 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.4 17.4 8.0 97.3 62.6 50.4 2.7 7.3 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 16.0 25.5 8.8 105.0 70.6 53.9 6.5 11.0 17.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 25.1 25.8 10.2 88.1 60.1 48.4 10.6 19.8 30.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.7 6.5 93.1 64.6 53.3 1.9 4.4 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------