***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.09.2016.-25.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 2.9 15.4 8.8 98.3 67.9 48.0 1.4 7.2 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.6 12.7 8.5 102.6 68.5 47.9 1.9 6.4 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.7 13.0 9.2 101.8 69.2 50.8 2.3 6.8 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 2.7 12.2 8.7 87.2 64.6 46.2 2.5 6.7 13.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 2.1 14.6 9.0 95.4 65.2 48.8 0.5 4.2 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 3.4 8.7 9.3 80.7 57.4 43.9 1.6 8.0 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 2.0 17.5 8.8 104.3 69.1 50.4 2.4 4.9 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 3.5 14.1 10.3 94.7 61.0 48.1 2.6 7.7 15.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 2.2 15.4 10.2 99.4 67.7 48.3 0.5 5.1 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 2.0 12.3 11.0 94.5 61.2 46.8 1.1 4.4 20.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 1.0 11.9 8.6 90.4 63.8 47.6 0.5 2.2 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 2.4 10.7 8.3 89.5 63.7 48.1 0.2 5.4 11.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 8.5 13.9 9.1 86.8 64.6 48.2 0.3 5.8 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.0 15.3 11.0 89.4 66.2 49.6 1.7 7.7 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 1.0 11.5 7.4 80.9 65.9 45.4 0.8 2.3 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 1.3 6.1 8.5 85.4 64.7 47.3 1.3 2.8 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 1.2 12.3 8.3 102.2 67.8 49.6 1.3 2.9 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 1.9 8.3 11.1 87.4 59.1 45.8 1.0 4.1 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 1.4 20.4 8.9 103.7 68.4 48.7 1.4 3.2 17.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.1 11.0 12.7 95.7 61.6 45.6 0.9 9.4 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.1 13.8 9.7 104.8 67.8 49.6 1.8 4.9 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 3.4 12.5 9.0 100.4 67.2 50.3 2.0 7.8 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.1 17.0 9.3 95.6 70.7 49.8 2.4 4.6 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.4 11.7 10.2 90.1 63.1 48.4 1.1 7.4 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 2.9 13.0 9.8 101.1 66.8 49.0 1.6 7.0 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.2 11.5 8.2 90.4 64.5 48.4 0.6 4.8 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 2.1 11.6 9.1 94.0 66.3 47.2 1.2 5.3 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.3 9.6 8.2 83.1 64.0 45.1 0.2 2.9 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 4.6 14.3 11.3 86.1 58.0 46.1 4.2 9.6 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 1.9 11.9 8.5 98.7 69.1 49.4 0.8 4.3 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------