***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.09.2016.-18.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 81 19 0 100 2.4 3.7 4.2 31.5 32.3 25.8 3.8 11.5 20.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 2.8 4.3 3.8 33.9 34.0 27.0 4.0 7.5 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 80 20 0 100 1.9 3.2 4.7 35.0 34.0 26.1 2.6 9.6 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 82 18 0 100 1.7 2.4 3.9 24.5 31.5 24.1 2.7 8.6 13.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 2.9 3.4 5.4 36.2 37.9 29.5 3.0 9.3 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 1.3 2.0 5.8 36.5 39.0 27.1 1.4 3.8 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 2.3 4.0 3.7 32.5 36.6 27.5 3.2 7.1 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 4.5 10.9 7.7 52.2 40.8 30.4 8.7 17.9 27.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 80 20 0 100 2.1 3.7 5.7 39.1 34.7 24.2 2.8 10.3 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 2.9 6.9 7.6 48.8 38.2 28.6 5.2 12.6 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 2.3 6.6 7.0 45.8 40.2 30.8 1.6 7.9 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 2.2 4.1 6.7 49.9 39.9 31.0 2.6 8.3 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 1.5 2.6 5.7 37.8 37.6 31.5 2.1 5.6 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 4.0 3.9 7.2 43.5 35.2 29.3 3.5 12.4 22.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 1.0 1.5 3.0 21.8 34.0 23.2 1.4 3.8 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 1.6 3.0 6.0 38.4 37.3 31.3 2.6 5.3 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 2.6 5.2 3.9 36.3 37.7 28.3 3.2 7.8 19.9 30 Palic 37000G16 78 22 0 100 2.8 7.3 9.0 54.6 36.0 31.0 6.9 10.6 18.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 3.1 3.9 4.2 35.3 34.0 27.4 3.5 8.5 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 4.2 9.5 9.3 55.4 37.5 31.4 7.8 12.4 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 1.7 2.6 5.0 34.0 32.9 24.0 2.6 8.8 20.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 2.6 3.1 4.5 39.9 36.2 29.3 2.2 7.8 16.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 77 23 0 100 2.2 4.9 4.7 35.2 33.9 27.5 4.7 8.9 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 75 25 0 100 2.4 4.8 7.5 48.4 37.2 30.1 3.8 9.5 23.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 3.5 2.8 4.5 28.2 33.9 25.9 2.2 12.5 19.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 1.2 3.7 7.6 55.0 50.6 32.4 1.2 3.5 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 78 22 0 100 1.9 1.8 4.3 29.4 33.1 24.5 1.8 8.9 20.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 1.7 3.2 4.0 26.6 35.8 25.4 2.3 6.5 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 76 24 0 100 5.5 12.3 9.5 56.1 36.8 32.4 10.8 17.4 33.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 2.5 4.3 3.7 31.7 33.2 26.9 4.3 9.1 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------