***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.09.2016.-11.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 1.1 11.5 16.3 140.2 73.7 53.7 0.6 2.5 7.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 4.9 7.8 15.7 143.8 74.3 54.2 1.4 3.1 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 1.4 21.5 19.3 162.7 79.3 58.8 1.5 2.8 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 16.3 33.7 21.8 192.0 82.4 55.8 3.2 12.1 20.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 2.7 19.7 19.8 171.6 82.2 59.0 2.5 5.9 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.3 23.0 21.1 177.6 79.6 55.5 1.6 7.0 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 1.8 11.9 14.5 127.1 71.5 48.2 1.1 4.4 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 26.9 44.8 30.2 238.8 89.0 67.6 8.6 17.7 23.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 16.6 23.0 22.9 209.5 85.8 63.2 1.6 6.1 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 13.1 20.5 29.5 227.0 88.6 66.0 3.2 7.3 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 13.8 20.3 22.1 203.5 86.3 62.3 0.7 4.4 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 16.2 26.4 23.2 208.3 84.4 63.8 5.5 9.3 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 14.7 21.4 22.3 177.8 80.3 59.9 2.8 6.3 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 11.5 27.2 27.9 201.7 84.5 65.8 2.1 3.9 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 0.8 19.9 22.6 245.2 88.9 56.3 0.3 1.9 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 14.2 20.1 20.2 183.2 83.3 59.0 1.5 7.3 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 7.4 12.1 13.5 124.9 71.5 52.0 1.1 2.6 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 14.4 25.4 31.3 223.7 87.6 68.1 2.9 10.6 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 6.5 14.1 17.1 154.7 75.9 57.2 1.3 3.7 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 27.2 43.7 37.1 275.6 89.4 73.9 4.8 13.4 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 10.3 15.4 20.5 185.7 81.1 60.2 1.8 5.2 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 8.6 13.9 15.5 138.1 72.6 55.7 1.8 6.6 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 11.1 19.3 19.6 174.4 80.5 60.8 1.0 2.8 4.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 13.5 24.5 25.8 195.6 84.7 64.3 1.5 4.6 10.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 1.4 9.5 17.1 129.1 74.4 50.8 0.9 3.8 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 12.1 18.9 22.0 220.8 84.5 65.6 1.9 5.3 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 1.1 13.2 16.3 130.7 72.7 50.8 1.5 2.7 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 1.3 22.0 23.2 221.3 85.9 56.7 0.9 2.7 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 29.5 43.3 33.1 243.2 88.2 70.9 9.7 13.9 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 4.6 8.4 16.4 144.8 74.1 54.1 1.3 2.8 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------