***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.09.2016.-02.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 23.7 24.1 24.1 1.3 70.4 68.8 22.2 22.6 23.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 24.2 24.7 24.5 1.4 74.4 69.7 22.4 23.1 24.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 24.2 24.5 24.4 1.3 69.5 67.4 22.3 23.1 24.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 16.3 17.3 21.9 1.5 75.5 68.9 15.6 16.0 16.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 24.7 25.1 22.6 1.3 70.6 66.4 22.9 23.4 24.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 24.0 23.9 20.2 1.2 70.6 66.4 22.0 22.9 23.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 24.0 24.5 24.4 1.4 76.1 70.0 21.9 22.8 23.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 13.3 13.1 20.6 1.1 69.4 64.5 12.1 12.7 13.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 24.4 24.8 23.1 1.3 71.5 66.5 22.4 23.2 24.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 24.1 24.7 21.4 1.2 71.3 65.2 21.8 23.0 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 24.3 24.8 22.6 1.4 69.8 67.1 22.7 23.2 24.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 23.9 24.1 21.7 1.2 68.4 65.4 22.1 22.8 24.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 24.9 25.3 21.8 1.3 67.7 66.0 22.8 23.7 25.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 23.6 24.5 22.6 1.1 68.0 64.5 22.2 23.3 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 24.5 25.4 23.6 1.6 79.8 72.0 22.8 23.6 24.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 24.4 25.7 22.2 1.4 69.1 67.7 23.5 24.0 25.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 23.5 24.1 24.5 1.6 76.7 73.0 21.7 22.4 23.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 22.6 23.4 20.7 1.0 69.7 64.2 21.3 22.2 23.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 23.8 24.4 24.7 1.5 74.9 70.0 22.2 22.9 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 19.5 19.5 18.4 0.9 69.1 62.6 17.8 18.4 19.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 24.4 24.5 23.8 1.2 69.3 66.2 22.2 23.2 24.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 24.3 25.0 24.3 1.5 74.1 70.7 22.5 23.0 24.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 24.0 24.4 24.7 1.6 78.3 70.9 22.4 23.3 24.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 23.9 24.4 22.6 1.2 70.7 65.8 22.1 22.7 24.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 24.1 24.4 22.8 1.4 75.6 69.4 22.1 22.9 23.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 24.2 24.4 21.1 1.0 64.3 63.0 22.7 24.0 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 24.0 24.6 23.5 1.4 74.4 70.2 22.1 22.8 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 24.1 24.7 22.6 1.5 75.7 69.3 22.6 23.9 24.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 18.2 18.7 19.8 0.9 69.7 63.2 16.8 17.9 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 24.0 24.4 24.4 1.3 72.4 67.9 22.1 22.8 24.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------