***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.09.2016.-25.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 23.9 23.9 23.8 1.8 70.0 67.6 21.6 23.1 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 25.2 24.7 24.1 2.0 73.2 69.1 21.9 23.8 24.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 25.1 25.7 24.3 2.0 74.7 68.5 22.1 23.8 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 18.1 18.8 21.8 1.8 76.1 68.1 15.4 16.5 17.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 25.6 25.9 22.3 1.8 75.6 67.2 22.7 24.3 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 25.1 25.7 20.0 1.7 77.6 67.1 21.7 23.9 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 44 56 100 24.5 23.9 23.9 1.9 72.2 68.0 21.4 23.1 23.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 14.5 15.2 20.8 1.9 77.1 67.5 11.7 13.2 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 25.2 25.8 22.6 1.9 76.2 67.3 22.6 24.0 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 25.1 26.1 21.5 2.0 78.0 67.6 21.9 23.6 24.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 25.3 25.9 22.2 2.0 77.2 68.2 22.3 24.3 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 24.6 25.4 21.8 1.9 77.1 68.3 21.5 23.2 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 26.3 26.9 21.2 1.9 76.6 68.2 22.6 24.8 25.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 25.5 26.0 22.5 2.0 76.1 68.8 21.9 24.0 25.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 25.4 26.0 22.8 1.9 79.7 69.9 22.9 24.0 25.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 26.4 27.1 21.9 2.0 77.2 68.6 23.1 25.1 26.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 24.4 25.3 24.0 2.0 77.8 69.9 21.5 22.6 23.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 24.1 24.8 21.0 2.0 78.7 67.9 21.1 23.1 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 25.2 25.6 24.3 2.1 74.5 69.9 21.8 23.2 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 20.6 20.8 18.7 1.8 73.2 66.2 17.4 19.0 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 25.3 25.5 23.4 1.8 73.8 67.1 22.2 24.3 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 25.4 26.1 23.9 2.0 76.5 69.4 21.8 23.4 24.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 25.5 26.4 24.4 2.3 76.6 70.8 21.9 23.4 24.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 25.0 26.2 22.5 2.1 79.2 68.8 21.7 23.7 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 24.7 24.4 22.1 1.7 70.3 67.6 22.4 23.4 24.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 25.8 26.0 21.3 1.8 75.5 66.9 22.9 24.2 25.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 24.8 24.2 23.0 1.8 70.8 68.0 22.0 23.5 23.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 25.5 26.1 22.2 1.9 78.3 68.7 22.8 24.3 25.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 20.0 20.4 20.1 1.9 76.6 67.3 17.2 18.7 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 23.7 24.3 24.1 1.9 72.0 68.3 21.6 23.3 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------