***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.09.2016.-18.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 25.8 25.9 25.8 2.1 75.9 71.1 21.8 24.7 25.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 26.1 26.5 26.5 2.4 77.2 73.4 23.0 24.7 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 25.8 26.1 26.1 2.1 75.0 70.7 23.1 24.9 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 18.8 19.5 23.2 2.1 73.9 70.3 15.4 17.3 19.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 26.4 26.8 24.1 1.9 70.8 68.9 23.0 25.5 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 24.7 25.7 21.4 1.4 67.3 63.8 23.0 24.4 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 25.8 26.3 26.3 2.4 77.9 73.6 22.9 24.0 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 14.3 14.8 21.8 1.5 67.4 65.1 12.3 14.1 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 26.0 26.0 24.7 1.9 70.7 69.1 23.0 25.1 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 25.6 25.9 22.8 1.7 68.4 66.6 23.3 24.6 25.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 46 54 100 26.0 26.5 24.2 1.9 69.3 68.0 23.4 25.2 26.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 24.9 25.6 23.0 1.6 68.4 65.6 22.3 24.8 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 25.9 27.0 23.3 1.7 69.4 65.6 23.7 25.6 26.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 25.8 26.1 24.4 1.9 72.2 68.8 23.3 24.5 25.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 26.4 26.9 25.2 2.1 76.9 70.9 23.2 25.4 26.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 45 55 100 27.0 27.4 23.7 1.8 70.4 67.5 23.6 26.3 27.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 25.4 26.1 26.4 2.7 79.5 76.0 21.6 23.6 24.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 24.8 24.7 22.0 1.6 67.7 65.7 22.5 23.7 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 25.6 26.0 26.6 2.5 77.2 73.6 23.2 24.2 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 20.4 20.9 19.7 1.3 64.1 63.4 18.2 20.2 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 25.9 26.1 25.5 1.9 71.8 69.1 23.1 25.0 26.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 25.6 26.0 26.3 2.6 79.1 74.5 22.7 24.3 25.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 25.7 26.1 26.6 2.6 78.0 74.1 23.0 24.5 25.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 25.6 25.4 24.2 1.9 70.5 68.4 22.9 24.6 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 25.7 25.8 24.4 2.0 75.0 70.9 22.0 24.6 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 25.3 26.2 22.2 1.3 65.2 62.4 24.1 24.9 26.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 25.8 26.1 25.1 2.1 76.4 71.9 22.3 24.6 25.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 26.6 27.3 24.0 2.0 74.7 69.3 23.7 25.4 26.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 20.6 20.3 21.2 1.5 66.5 64.6 17.5 19.6 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 25.7 26.1 26.2 2.2 76.0 71.7 23.2 24.3 25.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------