***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.09.2016.-11.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 25.7 25.4 25.7 1.3 65.2 63.0 23.6 23.9 25.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 26.0 25.6 26.0 1.2 60.2 61.2 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 22.6 25.2 25.7 1.0 59.8 59.2 23.2 24.7 25.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 19.0 18.9 23.0 1.6 70.1 64.6 15.4 16.8 18.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 26.4 25.8 24.1 1.3 66.3 61.6 23.4 24.1 25.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 24.6 25.1 21.5 1.3 65.6 62.1 22.0 23.0 25.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 25.4 25.5 26.1 1.4 65.6 64.0 23.2 24.0 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 11.7 14.0 21.3 0.7 58.6 55.4 11.3 13.1 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 26.0 25.6 24.8 1.2 65.9 60.5 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 22.1 24.9 22.4 0.9 60.7 57.0 22.6 24.0 25.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 26.0 26.1 24.3 1.3 66.9 60.6 23.0 23.9 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 21.9 24.6 22.7 1.0 62.2 58.2 22.0 23.2 25.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 26.1 26.6 23.9 1.3 68.8 61.3 23.4 24.3 26.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 24.8 25.0 23.8 0.5 54.4 53.7 23.4 24.4 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 26.3 26.3 26.1 1.9 74.7 68.0 23.3 25.2 26.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 26.7 26.8 23.9 1.5 69.5 62.3 24.1 24.4 26.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 25.1 25.3 26.1 1.7 67.6 65.8 23.1 23.7 25.1 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 21.2 23.1 21.2 0.5 54.9 53.8 22.0 22.9 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 25.6 25.4 26.0 1.2 60.7 60.5 23.2 24.8 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 17.6 19.6 19.0 0.2 51.1 51.3 17.9 19.3 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 22.5 25.5 25.5 1.1 61.9 59.6 23.1 24.6 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 25.7 25.6 25.9 1.4 65.0 62.0 23.5 24.8 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 23.0 25.6 26.0 1.4 64.8 61.3 23.2 24.8 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 22.0 24.9 23.8 0.7 56.8 55.6 23.1 23.5 25.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 26.1 26.3 24.8 1.6 72.3 64.7 23.3 24.1 25.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 22.9 25.2 22.0 0.7 56.7 56.7 22.8 24.1 25.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 25.9 26.3 25.3 1.6 70.6 65.2 23.1 24.1 25.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 26.2 26.4 24.3 1.6 70.6 64.7 23.1 24.9 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 16.9 18.7 20.4 0.4 52.3 52.2 17.4 18.7 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 22.6 25.0 25.9 1.0 58.8 60.0 22.8 24.4 25.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------