***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.09.2016.-02.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 11.8 12.0 14.5 1.0 77.0 71.1 10.6 11.1 11.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 12.1 13.0 14.2 1.0 80.5 72.3 10.3 11.0 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 13.9 14.4 14.6 1.0 78.1 71.0 12.3 12.9 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 9.2 9.7 11.9 1.1 78.7 72.2 7.9 8.2 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 10.9 11.3 12.3 0.9 77.1 70.3 9.4 9.8 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 9.7 9.9 10.0 0.9 74.2 70.0 8.4 9.0 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 11.9 12.2 14.3 1.0 78.0 70.1 10.6 11.4 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 5.5 5.9 10.2 0.9 78.6 71.5 4.1 4.7 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 11.6 11.9 12.5 0.9 76.7 69.8 10.3 10.9 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 11.5 11.9 11.0 0.9 77.9 70.2 10.1 10.6 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 11.0 11.4 11.9 0.9 77.5 70.6 9.8 10.2 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 9.8 10.1 11.0 0.9 76.5 71.0 8.5 9.1 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 10.5 10.7 10.4 0.8 74.8 67.9 9.4 9.9 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 12.0 12.3 12.3 0.8 74.7 68.3 10.7 11.2 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 12.3 12.6 13.4 1.1 79.1 73.5 10.9 11.4 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 11.8 12.0 11.2 0.9 75.9 70.0 10.4 11.2 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 12.1 12.6 14.0 1.1 81.0 73.3 10.6 11.3 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 10.2 10.5 10.4 0.8 76.0 69.3 8.7 9.6 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 12.1 12.4 14.3 1.1 81.2 73.6 10.3 11.2 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 6.5 6.7 8.5 0.8 75.1 69.6 5.2 5.6 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 11.3 11.5 13.8 0.9 75.5 69.1 9.7 10.6 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 11.3 11.7 14.1 1.0 81.0 73.1 9.7 10.4 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 11.6 12.0 14.3 1.1 80.6 74.3 9.7 10.5 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 11.6 12.1 12.3 0.8 76.6 69.5 10.1 10.5 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 11.9 12.0 13.4 1.1 76.5 72.0 9.9 11.5 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 10.5 10.6 9.9 0.7 73.5 65.9 9.2 10.0 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 12.6 13.0 13.9 1.1 77.9 71.9 10.6 11.5 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 10.2 10.5 12.2 1.0 77.6 71.7 9.0 9.5 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 9.4 9.7 9.8 0.8 76.4 69.4 7.9 8.6 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 12.2 12.5 14.4 1.0 77.8 70.9 10.7 11.6 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------