***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.09.2016.-02.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 10.0 9.6 12.1 0.2 54.3 53.2 8.9 9.5 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.2 11.7 0.0 51.5 52.1 8.8 10.1 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.1 12.3 0.1 54.2 53.1 10.7 11.9 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.9 7.9 9.6 0.4 60.2 56.0 5.7 7.0 8.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.5 9.4 9.8 0.2 57.8 54.2 8.3 9.0 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.4 8.1 0.4 59.1 56.8 7.2 8.3 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.4 11.8 0.0 54.2 52.2 8.9 9.9 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.2 3.9 8.1 0.3 56.2 55.8 2.9 3.8 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.2 9.9 10.0 0.2 54.3 53.3 8.9 9.7 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.7 8.8 0.3 55.1 54.9 9.2 9.6 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.6 9.3 0.3 59.5 55.9 8.3 9.4 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.8 9.1 8.7 0.4 59.7 56.2 7.2 8.4 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.2 8.1 0.5 57.8 56.4 7.8 8.9 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.5 10.1 0.2 54.5 53.7 9.1 10.3 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.8 10.8 0.4 60.4 57.1 8.7 10.3 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 10.6 10.4 8.8 0.5 58.9 56.6 9.6 10.0 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 8.8 10.0 11.5 0.0 52.4 51.9 8.7 9.9 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.0 8.5 8.3 0.3 54.5 55.7 7.5 8.4 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.0 11.8 0.1 52.1 52.6 8.7 9.8 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 5.2 5.4 6.4 0.3 56.1 55.7 3.9 4.8 5.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.5 11.4 0.1 52.8 52.7 8.8 9.4 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.7 9.4 11.5 0.0 52.3 52.0 8.0 9.3 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.5 11.9 0.2 54.4 53.6 8.5 9.2 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.7 9.9 0.3 55.2 55.1 8.7 9.7 10.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.2 10.8 0.2 55.4 53.3 9.1 9.9 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.1 9.0 7.9 0.4 59.5 56.7 8.4 8.7 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.7 11.5 0.2 54.9 53.2 8.5 9.7 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 7.4 9.1 9.9 0.4 61.3 56.7 7.6 8.5 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.6 7.8 0.3 55.9 56.0 6.7 7.4 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.6 11.9 0.1 52.7 52.5 9.3 10.5 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------