***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.09.2016.-25.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 11.8 12.2 13.9 1.4 74.0 67.3 9.8 10.9 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 12.2 12.5 13.6 1.3 75.6 68.0 10.0 10.7 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 14.1 14.3 14.1 1.3 72.4 67.4 12.2 12.9 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 8.8 10.1 11.2 1.1 67.6 63.8 7.1 8.3 10.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 10.2 11.0 11.3 0.9 65.8 62.5 9.0 9.8 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 9.4 10.2 9.4 0.8 65.6 61.0 8.3 9.0 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 12.3 12.5 13.7 1.2 73.0 66.7 10.1 11.6 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 5.5 5.9 9.5 0.9 66.4 62.6 4.6 5.3 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 11.9 11.8 11.5 0.9 66.3 63.0 10.0 11.0 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 10.8 11.7 10.2 0.9 66.8 62.3 10.0 10.4 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 10.4 11.4 10.8 0.9 65.1 61.7 9.8 10.1 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 9.6 10.8 10.1 0.9 65.1 61.9 8.2 9.1 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.5 11.0 9.2 0.7 62.7 58.6 8.8 10.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 12.2 12.2 11.8 1.1 70.6 65.0 10.5 11.4 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.9 12.3 1.0 66.0 63.8 10.9 11.5 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 11.3 11.5 10.1 0.8 62.4 59.9 10.6 11.1 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 12.2 12.5 13.4 1.3 75.7 67.9 10.1 11.2 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 10.7 10.9 9.6 0.8 65.4 61.6 8.8 9.8 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 12.0 12.3 13.8 1.4 76.3 68.8 10.1 11.2 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.9 7.5 0.8 64.9 61.2 5.1 5.9 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 11.8 11.7 13.1 1.1 68.9 65.3 9.6 10.3 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 11.5 11.5 13.5 1.3 75.6 68.1 9.6 10.2 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 11.8 12.2 13.8 1.4 76.8 69.5 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 11.8 11.3 11.5 0.9 68.2 63.6 9.7 10.4 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 12.5 12.8 12.5 1.4 71.1 66.8 10.1 11.2 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 10.4 10.7 9.1 0.7 62.0 59.5 9.2 10.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 12.8 13.8 13.2 1.4 72.7 67.2 10.2 10.9 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 9.7 10.5 11.4 1.0 65.1 62.8 8.6 9.4 10.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.1 9.6 9.0 0.8 64.5 61.2 7.9 8.9 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 12.6 12.9 13.8 1.3 74.4 67.6 10.2 11.4 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------