***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.09.2016.-18.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 12.2 13.0 15.2 0.7 61.5 59.6 11.2 11.9 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 12.6 12.8 15.0 0.8 68.8 62.6 10.4 11.0 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 14.2 15.0 15.5 0.8 66.5 61.6 12.5 13.8 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 10.1 10.3 12.6 0.8 60.1 61.3 7.8 9.8 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.9 11.2 13.1 0.6 58.6 58.3 10.0 10.6 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 9.8 9.7 10.5 0.4 56.8 56.3 8.9 9.6 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 13.0 13.3 15.1 0.7 68.2 62.2 10.8 11.7 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 6.0 6.5 10.9 0.6 61.1 60.0 4.7 5.6 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.1 13.2 0.4 55.4 57.0 11.1 11.8 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.9 11.7 0.6 59.7 59.1 10.7 11.3 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.5 12.8 0.6 61.8 60.0 10.0 11.1 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.8 11.7 0.5 59.5 57.8 9.0 9.5 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.1 10.1 11.0 0.2 55.1 52.0 9.3 9.8 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.1 13.0 0.4 56.0 56.9 11.0 11.8 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 11.9 11.9 14.2 0.7 59.4 60.1 11.2 11.6 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.8 12.0 0.5 58.8 56.5 10.6 11.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 13.3 13.4 14.8 0.9 71.3 64.3 11.0 12.1 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.9 11.1 0.5 61.8 58.4 9.2 9.9 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 12.8 13.3 15.1 0.9 69.6 63.8 10.8 11.4 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.7 9.2 0.5 60.4 58.6 5.5 6.4 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.6 14.5 0.5 56.3 57.9 10.3 11.3 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 12.3 12.3 15.0 0.9 69.2 64.6 9.8 10.6 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 12.3 12.8 15.2 1.0 70.4 65.3 10.1 11.3 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.9 13.1 0.5 60.9 58.5 10.6 11.4 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 12.1 12.0 14.1 0.7 55.4 59.4 10.8 11.9 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.2 10.4 0.0 52.0 49.1 9.7 10.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 12.3 12.4 14.6 0.7 59.2 59.7 10.5 11.9 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 10.2 10.3 12.9 0.6 58.8 59.0 9.2 10.0 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.0 10.4 10.5 0.6 62.4 59.4 7.8 9.6 10.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 13.2 13.3 15.2 0.8 66.1 61.7 11.1 12.0 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------