***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.09.2016.-11.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 12.8 13.4 16.7 1.9 85.7 78.3 9.9 11.9 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 13.2 14.0 16.4 1.9 86.1 79.2 10.6 11.4 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 14.8 15.1 16.7 1.7 81.6 75.9 12.4 14.1 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 10.7 11.2 14.2 2.0 81.4 80.3 7.7 8.9 9.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 11.7 12.5 15.1 1.9 84.2 78.9 9.8 10.6 11.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 11.1 11.8 12.1 1.8 82.6 78.2 8.6 10.0 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 12.8 13.2 16.5 1.8 83.3 78.3 11.2 11.8 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 6.7 7.6 12.4 1.8 82.1 77.6 3.7 5.2 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 12.6 13.2 15.1 1.8 84.4 78.7 10.7 11.8 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 12.6 13.1 13.3 1.7 81.9 77.0 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 12.3 12.8 14.7 1.8 82.9 78.1 10.4 11.3 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 10.9 11.3 13.5 1.9 81.8 77.9 8.6 9.5 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 11.7 12.0 13.3 1.7 78.6 77.0 9.7 10.7 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 13.3 13.7 14.5 1.4 75.2 73.9 10.8 12.0 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 14.0 14.2 16.2 2.1 84.0 82.0 11.7 12.4 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 13.3 14.1 14.0 1.9 82.4 78.5 11.0 12.0 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 13.2 13.8 16.2 2.0 88.5 81.1 11.7 12.3 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 11.6 12.3 12.6 1.6 80.8 75.2 8.6 10.3 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 12.9 13.3 16.4 1.9 86.3 78.8 10.8 12.3 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 7.8 8.2 10.7 1.6 78.1 74.5 5.3 6.5 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 12.4 12.9 16.2 1.7 82.4 76.4 10.3 11.3 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 12.4 13.3 16.5 1.8 86.2 79.3 10.1 11.5 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 12.7 13.2 16.5 1.9 85.6 77.9 10.1 11.8 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 13.0 13.5 14.7 1.5 80.6 75.5 10.4 11.6 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 12.7 13.4 16.2 2.1 85.6 79.0 10.4 11.6 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 11.8 12.0 12.3 1.6 75.3 74.9 9.5 10.8 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 13.9 15.2 16.5 2.1 86.9 79.5 10.0 11.5 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 11.4 11.9 14.6 1.9 81.6 79.9 9.6 10.3 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 10.4 10.8 11.8 1.5 78.9 74.1 7.9 9.1 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 13.4 13.9 16.6 1.8 83.3 77.5 11.3 12.1 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------