***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.09.2017.-01.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 56.1 51.2 41.7 90.9 53.4 49.0 32.2 50.6 59.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 43.4 41.3 42.8 96.9 54.8 50.7 28.6 38.4 59.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 53.5 48.5 41.5 92.4 52.3 48.5 27.9 47.8 67.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 39.7 56.8 40.7 85.2 47.6 44.7 32.0 58.4 77.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 49.9 40.4 40.1 89.1 50.1 46.2 27.7 40.3 58.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 48.4 42.2 45.6 90.1 51.3 46.7 26.7 41.6 63.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 48.4 48.2 43.3 97.2 56.1 51.3 36.6 44.6 62.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 76.6 65.2 48.5 92.8 50.6 46.7 50.3 65.0 92.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 48.8 42.6 40.6 88.2 49.2 45.5 31.1 43.1 58.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 56.2 48.6 47.6 90.3 48.8 45.5 31.5 48.8 69.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 51.9 45.5 40.3 89.4 49.9 45.7 30.1 45.5 63.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 29.3 48.3 42.5 93.3 52.2 47.0 22.8 46.2 63.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 29.3 46.0 42.1 89.6 49.3 45.9 29.9 46.3 63.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 72.1 62.1 50.2 88.5 49.3 45.7 37.7 62.4 71.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 20.4 32.8 38.7 87.1 50.4 45.3 19.9 31.9 62.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 23.6 35.8 39.9 87.3 47.7 45.1 24.1 36.5 52.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 50.0 51.5 43.5 96.6 56.8 50.7 31.5 47.0 53.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 69.0 60.5 52.2 90.7 49.5 45.8 39.4 62.9 77.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 50.3 48.0 42.7 95.7 53.7 49.6 31.3 45.1 59.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 74.4 68.1 60.1 95.8 53.8 48.9 52.7 67.8 79.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 59.5 57.9 40.1 89.3 52.5 46.7 29.0 55.7 63.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 50.5 46.0 46.0 97.7 55.0 50.3 31.4 44.1 51.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 49.3 44.1 42.3 92.0 53.2 47.2 26.7 42.9 50.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 69.7 62.1 46.8 89.7 48.1 46.2 40.4 64.4 79.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 55.8 51.8 45.3 93.2 55.3 49.5 34.8 50.8 68.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 41.2 33.0 40.2 88.3 50.2 45.5 26.5 32.9 47.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 48.8 51.2 46.4 95.7 56.3 51.1 30.4 44.0 60.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 28.4 41.4 38.2 83.9 47.2 44.2 20.0 47.3 62.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 96.6 84.6 55.5 92.6 50.4 47.3 58.3 84.3 112.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 43.2 45.4 43.3 96.9 54.7 50.9 25.3 39.1 53.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------