***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.09.2017.-01.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 1.9 10.4 8.3 79.7 60.8 43.1 2.2 4.9 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.1 7.5 8.6 81.6 58.9 43.9 1.3 5.2 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 2.3 8.2 8.6 85.4 59.9 44.4 3.6 5.9 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 6.4 18.5 10.8 91.9 60.6 46.0 2.5 14.1 24.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 3.4 12.4 10.6 94.7 62.7 47.0 2.6 8.1 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.5 12.6 12.1 90.7 60.2 47.4 2.4 7.1 15.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 1.9 7.6 8.8 83.2 59.9 44.4 2.1 3.7 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 6.2 16.4 12.8 97.4 61.5 48.8 6.9 14.4 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 2.9 13.8 10.1 89.2 61.0 46.2 2.2 7.1 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 4.9 17.2 12.1 92.5 59.9 47.7 3.3 12.2 22.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 4.7 15.4 11.0 95.8 62.0 47.9 3.4 11.2 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 2.9 11.5 11.7 100.2 63.3 48.2 4.1 5.5 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.7 10.8 11.7 92.8 61.2 48.0 2.2 8.1 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.0 11.8 11.3 82.4 54.6 43.8 5.7 8.8 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.7 10.5 10.5 91.0 65.0 46.5 0.9 5.9 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.1 10.5 11.1 92.2 60.5 47.0 3.4 9.0 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 1.9 5.4 8.4 73.1 56.4 43.7 1.6 3.9 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.0 15.0 13.6 96.9 60.3 48.4 4.2 8.0 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 2.9 7.4 8.5 80.2 57.4 42.9 4.9 6.8 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.7 17.4 16.7 102.9 63.5 50.4 4.5 11.7 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.0 12.5 9.0 86.1 60.5 45.6 3.3 6.7 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 1.3 4.2 8.6 69.9 52.9 42.9 1.2 2.6 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 4.3 9.3 8.7 80.0 54.4 42.4 4.6 8.3 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.8 11.8 11.2 91.2 58.6 46.5 3.3 8.8 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 3.1 9.0 8.9 77.1 58.3 43.6 4.3 7.4 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.7 11.6 12.4 102.2 63.4 49.8 1.3 6.0 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 2.5 12.2 8.7 77.5 58.7 42.8 2.7 6.4 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.4 12.1 11.1 95.7 62.4 47.0 2.4 7.3 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 8.0 24.6 15.0 102.5 62.3 49.7 9.7 14.8 29.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.4 7.6 8.8 84.7 59.4 43.8 1.9 5.2 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------