***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-24.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 10.6 11.4 10.3 87.9 61.0 50.7 1.1 7.8 14.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 10.1 13.0 12.6 116.3 68.0 53.6 2.2 7.8 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.0 15.0 11.5 95.1 63.3 51.6 2.8 8.1 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 2.1 8.5 11.9 95.1 64.1 48.9 1.5 4.3 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.4 5.8 10.7 91.8 62.4 49.8 0.4 4.0 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.3 9.8 14.5 115.3 68.0 53.0 3.5 7.3 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 11.9 17.2 12.3 111.1 68.6 53.4 2.4 9.0 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.6 12.2 13.2 99.5 63.1 50.6 2.1 8.7 13.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.4 10.9 89.2 61.4 49.4 1.3 3.7 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.8 12.8 93.8 61.1 49.6 2.5 6.4 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.5 8.6 10.5 92.7 61.6 49.3 0.4 3.7 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.3 8.9 11.5 102.0 64.6 51.0 0.2 5.2 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 9.7 9.7 11.9 102.3 64.1 51.3 1.4 6.1 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.6 22.0 14.3 98.0 60.3 51.8 2.1 13.8 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 0.9 8.5 11.6 101.5 67.2 50.1 0.2 1.9 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 1.5 5.1 11.0 96.1 62.6 47.6 0.4 3.2 5.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 8.6 13.4 12.9 116.9 69.9 53.1 2.7 5.6 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.9 13.1 14.5 97.9 61.3 52.7 1.2 7.3 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.0 14.6 12.3 112.1 66.5 53.2 1.8 5.8 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 13.1 16.8 16.8 105.0 62.7 54.1 0.4 10.4 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.6 12.5 10.8 91.4 61.2 50.9 2.9 8.8 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.2 12.3 13.8 120.4 69.1 54.3 1.8 7.7 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.4 15.1 11.7 102.2 62.0 52.0 2.9 9.1 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 13.7 21.0 13.2 94.6 61.2 51.7 3.6 8.9 22.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.5 12.1 11.9 96.3 61.9 51.7 2.3 4.9 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 9.9 13.4 10.9 94.7 66.6 49.4 0.9 7.2 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.5 9.1 11.7 95.7 61.5 51.6 1.7 5.3 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 0.8 9.4 11.4 96.5 64.4 48.9 0.4 1.8 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 19.0 20.9 15.3 99.8 62.5 53.0 5.8 15.5 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.1 15.2 12.6 112.5 67.3 53.8 1.2 6.2 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------