***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.09.2017.-17.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.5 23.4 12.1 106.9 68.1 53.0 2.8 7.9 22.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.9 16.6 12.8 115.9 71.5 55.3 2.8 9.5 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 11.4 23.7 12.5 117.4 71.0 56.0 0.9 6.3 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.9 13.4 10.0 94.5 66.1 53.2 1.6 8.3 13.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 13.5 16.3 10.4 107.0 66.9 52.6 1.4 11.2 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.9 6.3 10.4 88.8 61.1 47.3 1.5 4.8 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.0 13.8 12.3 111.3 69.6 55.0 3.4 6.2 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 22.5 28.1 13.2 117.1 67.4 50.9 9.8 19.3 27.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 14.3 21.3 11.4 113.2 67.4 51.5 4.0 11.2 21.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.7 15.4 13.6 120.7 67.9 52.5 4.9 11.6 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.3 13.3 11.3 109.6 68.0 50.6 1.7 9.4 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.9 15.2 11.2 108.9 67.1 50.2 2.6 8.2 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.0 14.5 10.7 106.6 67.4 52.8 2.0 5.8 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.8 19.1 14.4 106.0 64.3 52.7 3.3 7.6 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.3 10.8 9.5 88.9 68.1 52.6 1.3 2.8 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.9 9.5 9.9 98.1 66.7 50.3 3.2 5.9 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 13.8 20.9 12.6 119.5 70.3 55.1 1.7 10.4 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 16.8 19.8 14.0 112.9 66.1 50.8 5.5 12.6 19.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.2 15.9 13.2 119.2 71.5 55.7 2.5 8.1 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 9.0 21.1 15.6 115.6 65.4 52.7 7.0 13.6 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 19.2 22.0 11.5 108.2 67.3 52.8 2.5 15.8 20.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.0 21.3 14.2 127.0 71.6 56.0 1.5 7.9 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.1 17.2 12.9 115.7 67.7 54.7 4.2 7.5 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 13.6 20.1 13.6 111.8 66.7 53.0 3.9 9.4 19.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 17.1 26.2 11.8 97.3 64.1 53.7 2.0 12.4 30.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 1.9 9.2 9.8 90.5 62.1 46.3 1.0 4.0 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.2 26.2 13.4 108.0 67.6 55.7 0.9 5.5 25.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.0 11.5 8.6 86.7 66.2 51.2 0.8 6.7 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.1 26.0 15.1 111.7 66.1 51.9 10.0 16.5 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 14.0 18.7 12.9 114.5 71.0 55.9 5.4 10.8 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------