***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.09.2017.-10.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 5.5 5.5 10.9 88.7 60.3 55.2 0.9 2.8 7.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 5.8 6.6 8.8 75.0 59.8 51.3 1.8 4.0 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 6.2 7.8 8.9 73.6 58.0 52.0 2.3 3.9 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 19.6 17.9 8.1 62.7 54.9 48.1 5.8 17.4 21.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 11.3 10.6 8.4 67.4 56.8 50.3 3.1 9.4 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 10.4 8.6 8.6 66.0 54.4 48.1 5.7 8.1 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 7.8 9.2 9.9 83.6 61.5 53.7 1.2 5.1 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 23.6 20.2 9.3 64.0 50.8 46.4 10.4 19.7 29.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 12.1 12.6 8.3 66.2 54.9 49.8 3.6 10.4 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 11.2 9.3 9.1 62.2 50.7 46.0 3.9 8.9 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 13.3 13.2 7.6 63.3 55.5 48.4 3.5 11.0 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 12.8 10.5 8.2 66.2 55.5 48.7 5.6 9.4 18.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 12.4 12.6 7.7 61.3 57.0 48.7 3.6 10.4 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 8.2 10.2 10.2 69.0 54.1 47.8 2.7 6.2 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 6.5 6.7 7.2 65.8 62.2 51.1 1.2 4.6 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 11.6 11.5 7.8 65.2 56.2 49.3 5.5 9.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 7.3 9.7 9.6 80.3 59.1 52.3 1.7 4.4 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 13.3 10.9 10.0 61.8 48.0 44.3 5.1 11.6 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 8.4 8.9 8.7 72.8 57.7 50.1 1.3 5.8 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 18.9 13.2 10.9 65.0 47.4 44.3 8.8 15.3 28.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 7.3 8.1 8.8 73.6 55.8 51.9 3.4 6.0 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 10.2 10.8 9.5 77.7 56.2 50.5 3.4 8.9 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 6.9 5.8 9.0 72.0 56.7 48.7 1.9 4.4 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 10.3 10.1 8.8 64.0 51.9 46.6 2.6 8.3 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 7.8 9.6 12.7 101.1 66.3 58.5 3.0 6.4 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 8.8 10.8 7.2 64.5 58.7 47.5 1.6 7.0 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 5.3 10.7 12.6 100.2 65.1 57.7 1.7 3.8 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 8.7 8.9 7.1 57.9 55.2 48.5 2.5 6.6 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 22.7 19.2 10.0 61.2 46.7 43.6 11.9 19.5 27.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 6.0 6.4 9.0 76.5 58.3 52.1 1.4 4.2 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------