***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.09.2017.-01.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 22.2 22.5 23.0 -0.6 40.9 41.7 22.1 23.0 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 22.4 22.8 23.0 -0.7 36.9 40.1 22.6 23.3 24.0 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 22.5 23.0 23.6 -0.3 44.1 45.2 22.5 23.3 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 16.6 16.3 21.5 0.2 54.2 53.3 15.5 16.2 16.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 22.9 23.3 22.0 -0.1 47.7 48.0 22.9 23.5 25.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 22.0 22.7 19.8 -0.2 45.8 47.8 22.1 23.0 23.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 22.1 22.4 22.9 -0.8 36.0 39.5 22.1 23.0 23.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.8 20.4 0.0 49.9 49.4 12.0 12.8 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 22.6 23.3 22.7 0.0 51.4 50.0 22.6 23.2 24.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 23.7 23.1 21.2 0.0 49.6 49.2 21.9 23.2 24.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 22.7 23.3 22.1 0.0 49.4 49.3 22.7 23.3 24.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 21.9 23.2 21.6 0.2 51.8 51.5 22.1 23.0 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 22.9 23.5 21.4 -0.2 44.8 47.8 23.0 23.7 25.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 23.9 23.0 22.0 -0.3 43.9 44.2 22.3 23.4 24.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 23.2 24.2 22.9 0.3 55.0 54.5 22.8 23.8 24.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 24.6 24.1 21.9 0.1 50.5 51.1 23.8 24.1 25.8 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 21.4 22.0 22.5 -0.9 34.9 38.0 21.8 22.6 23.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 22.7 22.2 20.5 0.0 50.3 48.7 21.4 22.2 23.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 22.1 22.6 23.3 -0.5 40.7 42.6 22.4 23.1 23.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 19.0 18.5 18.3 -0.1 48.8 47.3 17.9 18.7 19.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 22.6 23.1 23.1 -0.3 45.2 45.2 22.4 23.2 24.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 21.9 22.8 22.5 -0.9 33.8 37.3 22.8 23.1 24.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 23.6 23.2 23.7 -0.1 47.6 47.9 22.6 23.2 24.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 23.3 22.7 22.2 -0.1 48.3 48.4 22.2 22.8 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 22.3 22.9 21.6 -0.6 40.7 42.1 22.4 22.9 23.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 23.1 24.2 21.2 0.2 51.7 52.0 22.7 24.2 24.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 22.4 22.6 22.2 -0.7 39.5 40.9 22.4 23.1 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 23.1 24.4 22.2 0.4 55.3 54.8 22.9 23.9 24.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.2 17.7 19.6 -0.2 47.9 46.2 16.9 17.8 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 22.1 22.5 23.1 -0.7 38.0 41.3 22.4 22.9 24.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------