***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.09.2017.-01.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 19.3 21.0 21.5 0.0 51.8 48.9 20.3 20.9 22.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 20.1 21.9 21.6 0.0 51.9 48.8 20.8 21.7 22.9 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 20.4 22.2 22.0 0.2 54.7 50.4 21.0 22.0 23.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 13.3 15.4 19.9 0.4 56.8 52.6 13.6 15.0 16.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 20.6 22.7 20.3 0.1 54.1 50.3 21.1 22.5 23.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 19.5 21.4 18.1 -0.1 50.9 49.8 20.7 21.3 22.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 19.8 21.3 21.5 0.0 51.5 48.8 20.4 21.2 22.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 9.7 11.7 18.9 0.2 52.8 51.5 10.4 11.7 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 20.2 22.3 20.7 0.2 55.2 50.8 21.1 21.9 23.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 19.9 21.7 19.6 0.2 53.3 51.1 20.4 21.6 23.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 20.4 22.7 20.2 0.2 53.6 51.4 21.2 22.4 23.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 19.6 22.2 19.9 0.3 54.3 52.3 20.6 21.9 22.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 20.3 22.7 19.4 0.2 54.0 51.7 21.4 22.4 23.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 20.3 22.5 20.4 0.2 54.5 50.9 20.7 22.4 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 20.7 22.8 20.5 0.4 57.3 52.9 20.7 22.1 23.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 20.9 23.2 20.1 0.4 55.5 52.6 21.9 22.7 24.5 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 19.6 21.3 21.3 -0.1 51.0 48.8 20.1 21.1 22.4 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 19.2 21.2 19.3 0.3 53.2 51.8 19.6 21.0 22.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 19.7 21.7 21.8 0.1 53.8 49.8 20.4 21.6 22.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 15.4 17.7 16.9 0.3 52.1 51.4 15.5 17.5 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 20.0 22.3 21.3 0.1 53.8 49.6 21.0 21.9 23.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 20.0 21.7 21.2 -0.1 50.7 48.8 20.8 21.5 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 19.8 22.4 22.0 0.4 57.3 51.7 20.7 21.7 23.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 20.1 22.4 20.6 0.4 55.5 51.8 20.3 22.0 23.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 19.7 21.5 20.0 0.0 52.2 48.8 20.2 21.3 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 20.7 22.5 19.5 0.5 55.7 53.7 20.9 22.3 23.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 19.3 21.1 20.8 0.0 52.1 48.8 20.5 21.1 23.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 20.5 23.0 20.1 0.4 56.6 52.8 20.4 22.7 23.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 14.6 17.0 18.3 0.2 51.1 51.1 15.2 17.0 18.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 19.5 21.3 21.6 0.0 51.9 48.9 20.4 21.3 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------