***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-24.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 21.4 22.2 22.6 -0.8 39.3 42.1 22.0 22.9 23.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 21.8 22.3 22.5 -0.9 39.4 41.4 22.0 23.3 24.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 21.8 23.0 23.2 -0.5 42.7 44.9 22.4 23.4 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 14.6 16.7 21.4 0.0 47.6 49.4 15.7 16.9 17.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 22.3 24.4 21.6 -0.3 44.3 46.7 23.3 24.7 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 21.3 23.5 19.5 -0.4 42.9 47.2 21.7 23.8 24.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 21.3 22.0 22.4 -0.9 38.7 40.9 21.9 22.7 23.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 11.4 13.1 20.2 -0.2 46.0 48.3 11.9 13.4 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 22.0 23.6 22.0 -0.3 44.3 47.0 23.1 24.0 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 21.7 23.3 20.8 -0.2 45.8 47.6 22.2 23.7 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 22.5 24.2 21.5 -0.2 47.1 48.3 22.7 24.5 25.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 21.5 23.8 21.4 -0.1 46.5 49.4 22.2 24.0 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 22.3 24.2 20.7 -0.4 43.2 47.6 23.2 24.9 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 21.6 22.8 21.3 -0.6 42.3 43.8 21.7 23.2 24.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 22.3 24.2 22.1 0.0 48.4 50.0 22.6 24.4 25.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 23.0 25.5 21.4 -0.1 47.5 49.5 23.7 25.5 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 20.8 21.4 22.1 -1.1 36.6 39.4 21.3 22.1 23.5 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 20.9 22.5 20.4 -0.2 45.3 47.6 21.0 22.6 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 21.6 22.4 22.8 -0.7 41.1 42.9 22.0 23.0 24.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 17.4 19.0 18.1 -0.3 44.2 47.4 17.5 19.5 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 24.3 23.3 22.4 -0.6 41.1 44.2 22.8 23.8 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 21.4 22.2 22.0 -1.1 36.4 39.3 22.0 22.8 24.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 23.8 22.8 23.1 -0.4 44.6 45.5 22.2 22.8 24.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 21.6 22.6 21.6 -0.3 45.0 46.7 22.0 23.4 24.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 21.8 23.0 21.1 -0.8 39.2 42.1 22.5 23.3 24.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 22.4 24.7 21.1 0.0 47.1 50.4 22.8 24.9 25.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 21.5 22.5 21.7 -0.9 38.6 41.5 22.3 23.0 24.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 22.4 24.6 21.7 0.1 49.1 50.5 22.8 24.7 25.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 16.5 18.8 19.4 -0.4 43.4 46.5 17.5 19.0 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 21.5 22.4 22.7 -0.8 40.6 42.2 22.1 22.9 24.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------