***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.09.2017.-17.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 22.7 25.1 24.6 -0.1 51.3 49.8 21.7 25.1 26.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 25.9 25.4 24.6 -0.2 49.1 48.7 22.8 25.4 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 22.9 25.9 25.2 0.2 55.0 52.2 22.8 25.6 26.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 18.2 19.2 23.1 1.0 62.8 58.3 15.0 17.7 19.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 26.4 26.4 23.7 0.5 57.7 54.6 23.2 26.2 26.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 24.7 25.7 21.7 0.8 63.6 57.4 22.6 24.3 25.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 22.4 25.1 24.4 -0.3 49.1 48.4 22.4 25.1 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.5 14.7 22.0 0.7 58.7 55.6 12.5 14.0 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 26.0 26.4 24.5 0.7 58.4 56.0 22.8 25.8 26.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 25.5 25.5 22.9 0.7 58.1 55.2 22.8 25.2 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 25.7 26.4 23.9 0.7 58.1 55.6 22.9 25.4 26.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 25.0 25.5 23.2 0.9 60.0 57.4 22.4 24.7 25.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 26.4 26.6 23.2 0.6 57.8 55.0 23.5 26.0 26.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 25.3 24.8 23.5 0.1 50.6 51.2 23.3 24.8 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 26.3 26.6 24.9 1.1 65.8 60.4 22.9 26.0 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 26.7 27.3 23.7 0.9 60.4 57.3 24.0 26.4 27.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 21.8 23.6 24.0 -0.4 46.2 47.2 21.9 24.3 25.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 24.3 24.6 22.1 0.6 57.5 54.4 22.5 23.7 25.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 25.4 25.1 24.9 0.0 51.3 50.4 22.3 25.1 25.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 20.5 21.0 19.9 0.5 57.1 53.9 18.5 20.1 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 26.0 25.9 24.8 0.3 55.4 52.9 22.8 25.7 26.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 25.1 23.6 23.9 -0.6 44.8 45.6 22.7 24.5 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 25.5 25.2 25.3 0.5 56.3 54.5 22.7 25.0 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 25.4 25.7 23.9 0.6 56.6 54.4 22.6 25.1 25.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 25.6 25.4 23.3 0.0 52.3 50.3 22.0 25.2 26.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 25.8 25.9 23.0 1.0 63.2 59.2 23.6 25.3 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 22.6 25.1 23.8 -0.2 50.8 49.2 22.2 25.1 26.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 26.2 26.7 24.0 1.1 66.1 60.1 23.3 25.9 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 19.7 19.7 21.1 0.4 54.3 52.7 18.1 19.2 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 22.4 25.0 24.7 -0.1 50.8 49.5 22.6 25.0 26.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------