***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.09.2017.-10.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 22.4 23.6 23.4 -1.6 36.3 35.7 22.9 24.3 25.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 22.5 22.4 23.4 -1.8 31.3 33.2 22.6 24.6 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 25.0 23.6 23.8 -1.3 38.7 38.4 23.2 24.4 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 17.0 16.9 21.5 -0.4 52.6 50.7 15.7 16.7 18.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 25.1 24.3 22.4 -0.9 45.9 44.6 23.0 24.5 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 23.6 22.7 19.9 -1.0 44.3 42.5 22.2 23.0 24.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 21.8 22.5 23.2 -1.9 29.4 31.7 22.8 23.8 26.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 12.9 12.2 20.4 -0.7 45.4 45.1 11.7 12.4 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 24.5 24.2 23.6 -0.5 50.8 48.0 22.6 24.1 25.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 24.4 23.4 21.5 -0.7 46.1 45.1 22.4 24.1 25.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 24.4 23.8 22.8 -0.8 46.5 45.2 22.3 23.9 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 23.5 23.1 21.8 -0.5 50.3 48.3 21.9 23.1 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 24.9 23.9 22.1 -1.1 43.2 42.1 23.4 24.4 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 24.9 23.2 22.7 -1.1 37.4 38.2 22.8 24.4 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 25.2 25.2 24.3 -0.1 54.8 54.0 23.7 24.9 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 25.3 24.6 22.3 -0.7 47.9 46.1 23.6 24.9 26.4 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 21.3 22.5 22.9 -1.9 30.1 31.9 22.6 23.5 25.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 23.4 22.5 20.5 -0.8 42.2 42.6 21.7 22.9 24.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 25.0 22.4 23.7 -1.5 35.3 35.9 22.3 24.4 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 19.5 18.0 18.4 -0.9 40.3 40.9 17.7 18.7 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 24.8 23.3 23.7 -1.1 40.6 40.5 22.8 24.3 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 22.0 22.2 22.9 -1.9 28.7 31.0 22.7 24.5 25.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 24.8 23.9 24.2 -0.9 41.9 42.0 22.4 24.3 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 24.4 23.1 22.8 -0.8 41.9 42.0 22.5 23.9 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 25.0 23.1 22.2 -1.6 36.2 36.2 23.1 24.2 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 24.7 24.0 21.1 -0.7 43.9 44.6 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 22.5 23.0 22.6 -1.7 33.6 34.1 23.0 23.9 25.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 25.1 25.2 22.8 -0.1 54.9 53.4 23.3 24.9 25.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 19.2 17.3 19.6 -1.0 38.2 39.3 17.3 18.6 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 22.4 22.6 23.5 -1.7 32.1 33.7 22.7 24.2 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------