***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.09.2017.-01.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 11.3 11.1 13.8 -0.2 46.5 47.3 10.6 11.1 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 11.4 10.8 13.5 -0.3 43.8 44.7 10.6 11.1 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.0 14.1 0.0 50.0 50.0 12.5 13.0 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 8.7 8.6 11.4 0.0 51.9 51.7 8.0 8.4 9.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 10.3 10.1 11.8 0.0 51.4 51.4 9.4 10.0 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.4 9.2 9.6 0.0 50.4 51.0 8.6 9.2 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 11.5 11.2 13.6 -0.3 44.4 45.5 11.0 11.3 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 5.0 4.7 9.6 0.0 47.3 49.2 4.2 4.8 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 11.1 11.2 12.1 0.1 53.7 53.6 10.6 10.9 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 10.9 10.6 10.4 0.0 49.5 50.4 10.1 10.6 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 10.5 10.3 11.3 0.1 51.3 52.2 9.9 10.3 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 9.4 9.2 10.4 0.1 50.3 52.1 8.5 9.2 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 10.2 9.9 10.1 0.0 49.9 50.9 9.5 9.9 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 11.6 11.3 11.8 -0.1 47.4 48.4 10.8 11.4 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 11.8 11.8 12.9 0.3 60.1 58.1 11.0 11.6 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 11.4 11.2 10.8 0.1 53.0 54.2 10.5 11.2 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.0 13.2 -0.3 42.7 44.3 10.8 11.3 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 9.9 9.7 9.7 0.0 50.7 51.3 9.0 9.7 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 11.5 11.2 13.6 -0.2 45.7 46.0 10.5 11.2 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.0 5.6 7.8 -0.1 46.2 47.9 5.3 5.7 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.0 10.8 13.2 0.0 49.6 50.4 9.9 10.8 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 10.7 10.2 13.2 -0.3 41.9 43.4 9.8 10.4 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 10.9 10.6 13.6 -0.1 48.6 48.9 9.9 10.6 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 11.0 10.7 11.8 0.1 52.3 52.9 10.2 10.7 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.3 12.7 -0.2 45.7 46.3 10.2 11.4 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.2 10.0 9.7 -0.1 49.9 49.7 9.5 10.0 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.5 13.2 -0.2 46.0 46.9 11.1 11.6 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 9.7 9.7 11.8 0.2 56.6 55.5 9.1 9.5 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.1 8.7 9.1 -0.1 46.7 48.4 7.9 8.8 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 11.9 11.6 13.8 -0.2 45.3 45.8 11.0 11.7 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------