***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.09.2017.-01.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.9 12.4 0.0 48.4 48.7 9.4 9.9 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 10.7 10.2 12.1 -0.1 47.1 47.7 9.0 10.3 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 10.9 12.1 12.6 0.1 50.5 50.4 11.3 12.0 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 7.8 7.0 9.7 -0.1 46.8 48.4 6.7 7.1 8.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 8.1 9.4 9.9 0.0 47.2 49.3 7.8 9.7 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 7.3 8.4 8.1 -0.2 47.1 48.0 7.2 8.4 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.5 9.9 12.1 -0.2 46.7 47.1 9.3 10.0 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 3.0 3.8 8.2 0.0 46.3 50.2 3.3 3.9 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 8.8 9.7 10.3 0.1 49.1 50.8 9.2 9.8 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 8.9 9.7 8.9 0.0 47.1 50.6 9.0 9.7 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 8.1 9.3 9.4 0.0 47.6 49.7 8.6 9.5 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 7.6 8.3 8.7 0.0 46.4 49.6 7.4 8.7 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 8.2 9.0 8.1 -0.3 44.2 47.1 8.0 9.4 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 9.5 10.3 10.2 0.0 48.8 49.8 9.9 10.3 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.5 10.8 0.0 48.0 49.4 9.2 10.6 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 9.2 10.2 8.9 -0.1 47.7 48.6 9.6 10.3 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 8.9 9.7 11.8 -0.1 47.7 48.1 9.2 9.8 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 7.7 9.0 8.1 0.1 48.3 51.1 8.0 9.0 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 9.1 9.9 12.2 0.0 47.9 48.7 9.3 10.0 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 4.1 4.5 6.3 -0.1 44.5 48.8 3.8 5.0 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 8.7 9.8 11.6 0.0 49.0 50.1 9.2 9.8 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.2 11.7 -0.1 47.0 48.2 8.4 9.3 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 8.6 9.6 12.1 0.1 49.6 50.5 9.3 9.6 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 8.8 9.8 10.0 0.1 50.7 51.4 9.1 9.8 10.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.0 11.0 -0.1 46.3 48.1 9.6 10.3 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 8.3 8.8 8.0 -0.3 44.6 47.1 8.5 9.3 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 11.2 10.1 11.7 -0.1 46.7 48.0 9.1 10.5 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.5 9.9 -0.1 47.7 48.7 7.6 8.8 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 6.4 7.6 7.6 0.0 47.0 49.8 7.2 7.6 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.2 12.3 -0.1 46.9 47.8 9.8 10.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------