***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-24.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 10.0 10.7 13.5 -0.3 45.5 46.0 9.9 11.0 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 9.8 10.5 13.2 -0.2 47.0 46.9 10.1 10.9 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.8 13.8 0.0 48.7 49.3 12.2 12.8 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 7.4 8.4 11.2 0.1 51.5 51.3 7.4 8.4 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 9.1 10.1 11.3 0.1 51.3 50.9 9.2 10.1 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 8.0 9.3 9.6 0.1 54.1 52.7 8.4 9.3 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 10.2 10.8 13.4 -0.2 45.6 47.1 10.1 11.5 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 4.0 5.3 9.5 0.1 50.8 52.2 4.5 5.3 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 10.1 11.2 11.6 0.1 51.7 51.6 10.6 11.1 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 9.9 10.8 10.2 0.1 50.0 51.8 10.6 10.8 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 9.6 10.8 10.8 0.2 53.8 52.8 9.6 10.6 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 8.2 9.3 10.1 0.2 53.8 53.8 8.6 9.3 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 8.8 10.5 9.6 0.1 53.6 52.4 8.9 10.2 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 10.3 11.2 11.4 -0.1 46.3 49.5 10.7 11.3 12.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 10.6 11.8 12.4 0.3 55.7 54.8 10.7 11.6 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 10.2 11.6 10.3 0.2 55.0 53.6 10.6 11.1 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 10.2 11.2 13.0 -0.2 48.7 47.2 10.2 11.3 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 8.6 10.2 9.4 0.2 50.8 53.2 9.5 10.1 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.1 13.3 -0.2 46.8 47.7 9.9 11.3 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.8 6.0 7.6 0.0 46.8 51.4 5.7 6.1 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 9.3 10.4 12.8 0.0 49.7 49.2 10.2 10.5 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 9.2 10.1 12.9 -0.2 45.6 47.2 9.4 10.4 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.6 13.3 0.0 48.7 49.7 9.8 10.7 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.5 11.4 0.2 51.7 52.7 10.0 10.4 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 10.4 10.9 12.1 -0.3 45.0 46.0 10.6 11.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 8.8 10.3 9.4 0.1 52.8 51.7 9.5 10.0 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 10.0 11.0 12.8 -0.3 45.3 46.0 10.2 11.1 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 8.6 9.9 11.5 0.3 54.8 53.8 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.8 8.8 8.9 0.1 48.5 52.0 8.1 8.8 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 10.3 11.3 13.5 -0.2 46.1 46.7 10.3 11.8 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------