***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.09.2017.-17.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 12.2 12.5 15.2 0.5 61.3 57.8 10.6 12.0 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 12.0 12.1 14.7 0.3 58.5 55.5 11.1 11.7 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 14.0 15.2 15.4 0.6 63.5 59.6 12.9 13.7 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.3 10.3 12.6 0.6 62.6 60.0 8.1 10.0 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 11.2 11.2 13.2 0.7 62.7 59.9 10.0 10.9 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.7 10.7 0.5 60.9 58.3 8.7 9.4 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 12.3 12.5 14.9 0.3 60.2 56.3 11.2 12.0 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 6.0 6.6 10.7 0.4 58.5 56.9 4.7 5.7 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 12.3 12.8 13.4 0.8 65.7 62.1 11.1 12.1 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 11.7 12.1 11.6 0.6 60.9 59.0 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 11.2 11.2 12.5 0.6 63.4 59.2 10.1 11.0 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.8 9.9 11.6 0.6 63.1 59.4 8.6 9.6 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.2 10.7 11.3 0.5 62.4 58.8 9.2 9.8 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.1 12.6 13.0 0.6 61.1 58.8 11.2 11.8 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 12.9 13.3 14.3 0.9 69.7 65.4 10.6 11.8 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 12.0 12.6 12.1 0.7 65.3 61.0 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.5 14.4 0.2 58.8 55.6 11.3 12.0 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.2 10.6 11.0 0.7 61.0 60.3 9.1 9.8 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 12.3 12.5 14.8 0.4 58.8 56.3 10.8 12.0 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.5 7.0 9.1 0.5 57.8 57.0 5.6 6.1 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 11.7 12.1 14.5 0.6 62.3 59.8 10.4 11.5 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.5 14.4 0.2 55.0 54.1 10.2 11.3 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 11.6 12.0 14.9 0.5 61.5 58.6 10.5 11.4 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 11.5 12.3 13.1 0.8 65.7 62.0 10.5 11.2 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 12.0 12.4 14.1 0.4 59.2 57.2 10.8 11.8 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.6 10.9 0.6 63.1 58.7 9.4 10.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 12.3 12.8 14.6 0.5 60.9 58.1 11.0 11.9 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 10.9 11.3 13.0 0.8 67.4 63.1 8.8 9.8 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.1 10.3 0.5 58.4 58.4 8.4 9.6 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 12.5 12.9 15.1 0.3 59.8 56.4 11.7 12.3 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------