***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.09.2017.-10.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 12.1 11.1 14.3 -0.9 40.2 40.4 10.5 11.9 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 12.0 10.9 13.9 -1.1 36.2 35.8 10.5 11.6 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 91 9 100 14.0 13.1 14.5 -0.8 40.6 41.7 12.4 13.8 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 94 6 100 8.8 8.4 12.0 -0.5 48.6 47.0 7.9 8.7 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 10.8 10.4 12.7 -0.6 44.3 43.6 9.9 10.6 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 9.9 9.6 10.0 -0.5 46.2 45.8 8.8 9.8 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 12.2 11.3 14.1 -1.0 38.3 38.1 10.8 12.0 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 5.0 4.2 10.0 -0.7 39.8 39.9 3.9 4.6 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 92 8 100 12.0 11.6 12.9 -0.5 45.9 44.6 10.6 11.9 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 11.7 10.9 11.0 -0.7 40.8 40.0 10.2 11.5 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 92 8 100 11.4 11.3 12.3 -0.5 48.0 46.1 10.2 11.3 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 91 9 100 10.0 9.5 11.1 -0.6 44.0 44.2 8.7 9.9 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 95 5 100 10.7 10.5 11.2 -0.5 47.7 47.0 9.7 10.7 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 12.4 11.0 12.4 -0.8 39.6 39.4 10.7 12.1 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 97 3 100 12.3 12.6 14.3 0.0 55.8 54.9 11.8 12.3 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 95 5 100 11.9 11.9 11.9 -0.2 50.2 49.7 10.7 11.8 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 11.2 11.7 13.6 -1.1 33.4 34.4 11.6 12.2 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 10.9 9.1 10.3 -0.8 38.7 39.0 8.9 10.7 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 11.9 11.3 14.0 -1.0 37.8 37.4 11.0 11.7 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.5 5.6 8.4 -0.8 37.1 37.5 5.4 6.1 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 93 7 100 11.5 11.0 13.8 -0.7 43.8 42.8 10.1 11.4 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.7 10.5 13.9 -1.1 35.8 35.0 10.3 11.3 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 11.5 10.4 14.1 -0.9 39.1 39.0 10.3 11.2 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 90 10 100 11.8 10.9 12.5 -0.6 41.7 42.1 10.6 11.6 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 11.8 10.8 13.4 -1.0 38.4 39.0 10.5 11.5 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 10.8 10.1 10.3 -0.7 43.9 43.2 9.8 10.6 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 12.1 11.1 13.7 -1.0 39.0 39.4 10.4 11.7 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 94 6 100 10.7 10.8 12.7 -0.2 53.3 52.1 9.1 10.7 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.4 8.1 9.5 -0.9 35.5 36.0 8.0 8.9 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 12.5 11.5 14.3 -1.0 38.0 38.0 11.2 12.3 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------