***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2018.-30.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 72.3 83.8 67.9 148.2 80.8 70.1 31.8 50.1 60.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 58.4 67.4 62.4 147.9 78.3 70.2 30.1 37.5 53.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 64.9 77.6 68.6 151.5 80.7 71.1 29.1 46.2 64.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 90.1 112.6 74.2 152.0 82.0 70.9 32.5 57.7 79.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 71.7 89.4 73.6 163.3 85.0 74.0 32.6 41.9 53.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 62.6 73.5 79.9 159.1 83.7 74.3 27.3 41.8 60.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 60.0 67.7 60.2 142.1 77.2 67.5 34.1 43.8 59.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 104.1 132.6 79.4 158.3 83.0 75.1 47.3 65.0 88.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 64.0 87.2 78.1 170.4 87.0 76.7 30.7 44.3 58.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 75.5 96.2 83.8 163.4 85.0 76.9 31.4 48.8 69.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 64.8 75.3 73.0 164.2 83.7 75.0 31.1 45.5 62.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 67.6 80.0 69.7 159.6 82.1 73.6 24.8 44.4 63.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 59.3 66.9 73.8 161.6 83.1 73.2 29.9 45.9 61.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 90.9 111.3 82.3 146.6 81.1 71.0 41.1 61.8 70.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 61.0 73.9 64.3 145.3 77.5 67.2 20.6 30.6 59.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 55.3 63.6 71.8 161.0 83.0 73.4 23.9 36.3 52.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 56.7 58.1 59.7 142.1 75.9 68.2 31.8 45.6 53.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 85.8 98.6 89.3 158.1 86.1 77.1 40.7 61.5 77.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 65.6 76.5 63.6 147.4 78.9 70.5 31.3 45.7 64.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 88.8 108.1 91.5 150.4 83.6 74.0 50.7 68.1 78.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 72.0 90.2 73.8 162.7 84.4 74.6 29.0 55.7 65.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 61.7 66.4 60.7 137.0 75.7 66.4 30.6 41.6 51.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 63.1 76.3 65.7 145.0 79.0 69.8 25.0 41.2 51.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 85.2 100.6 80.9 156.7 84.7 74.7 37.3 63.2 79.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 67.6 76.1 73.6 148.4 80.1 70.9 34.8 50.1 68.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 54.8 63.7 63.9 143.5 76.7 66.8 27.3 34.3 47.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 65.2 78.8 70.1 145.4 79.9 69.5 34.1 44.0 60.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 64.0 77.1 70.2 154.0 81.0 70.7 20.3 37.0 65.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 125.6 149.3 90.2 153.5 85.0 75.8 59.4 82.1 112.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 56.6 64.9 63.3 146.1 78.7 69.2 26.1 39.0 54.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------