***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2018.-30.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.0 12.4 10.7 93.0 60.7 49.9 2.3 6.0 18.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.6 11.2 10.4 99.5 64.3 48.6 2.6 5.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.1 10.0 11.5 100.3 62.8 50.1 3.5 6.1 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 6.5 19.2 11.3 91.3 62.2 48.7 3.3 13.1 24.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 12.5 12.7 11.0 96.4 63.0 49.3 4.0 9.4 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.7 13.8 12.4 101.7 62.8 52.3 2.7 7.1 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 1.8 10.2 10.2 98.9 65.4 48.9 2.2 3.7 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 19.2 19.1 12.4 100.1 64.7 52.7 6.5 13.6 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 12.1 14.0 11.6 100.1 63.6 50.0 1.8 10.4 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 16.1 22.7 12.8 100.4 64.3 52.1 2.9 12.4 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.8 17.1 10.6 96.5 64.9 50.1 3.3 9.9 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 2.4 17.4 10.7 99.2 66.5 51.0 3.3 5.1 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.7 13.5 12.0 104.7 67.3 51.1 3.7 7.7 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.8 18.0 14.7 105.3 65.3 50.9 5.5 11.6 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.7 12.8 11.6 100.7 68.8 48.9 2.0 5.9 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.9 10.9 97.8 65.2 50.5 3.3 7.3 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 2.8 9.6 10.5 103.1 63.7 49.0 1.7 6.3 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 12.6 19.2 15.0 107.1 66.8 55.3 3.7 9.1 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.9 8.3 10.9 100.2 64.2 48.8 4.0 6.1 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.1 19.4 17.7 113.5 68.6 57.4 6.1 10.0 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.9 18.5 10.8 95.4 62.9 50.6 2.6 9.3 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.0 10.5 10.9 97.6 61.9 48.4 2.2 8.6 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.1 12.7 12.0 103.9 66.0 49.4 3.9 8.5 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.2 14.3 13.9 107.8 66.1 52.5 2.6 8.3 14.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.9 14.2 11.4 92.0 61.7 50.0 4.7 9.9 20.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.8 19.8 12.5 111.8 71.3 52.7 2.1 7.9 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 6.0 17.4 10.8 90.4 61.5 49.4 3.3 12.4 18.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.6 12.3 10.8 94.2 64.3 49.0 1.9 7.3 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.6 33.9 15.9 108.6 67.5 56.2 6.0 10.8 33.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.6 10.3 10.7 98.5 63.7 49.3 2.5 5.4 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------