***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2018.-23.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 13.2 15.7 10.8 107.1 67.0 54.9 1.0 11.2 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 9.8 11.8 10.5 106.9 68.5 55.9 2.1 7.9 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.1 13.6 10.4 103.5 64.8 53.9 2.2 6.8 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.0 12.0 12.8 116.1 70.6 57.7 2.1 5.6 10.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.1 14.7 11.8 116.8 70.6 58.2 0.5 4.0 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 44 56 100 13.8 12.3 14.4 130.0 72.6 62.2 1.7 6.1 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.0 14.4 10.6 107.0 69.5 56.3 2.7 8.6 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 26.1 25.6 12.6 119.2 69.5 58.5 3.3 10.4 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 10.1 10.0 11.6 108.4 68.0 54.7 1.3 5.2 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.1 10.4 12.7 111.3 69.0 54.9 4.0 6.3 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 14.6 19.1 11.7 125.8 71.7 60.2 0.7 2.5 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 11.8 14.3 11.7 130.8 70.8 61.5 1.0 4.2 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 14.7 14.3 13.7 144.7 73.6 63.6 1.4 7.2 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.1 17.6 13.2 108.2 61.6 52.3 1.5 11.0 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.5 13.8 11.0 110.0 70.2 57.6 0.1 2.3 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 12.3 14.2 13.0 140.6 74.4 62.6 0.6 3.2 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 9.4 13.3 10.1 100.8 67.8 55.1 3.3 7.3 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 11.9 17.8 14.3 117.4 68.6 56.3 0.9 6.3 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 10.0 13.7 10.4 106.0 66.4 54.5 2.0 6.1 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 22.7 23.5 16.3 124.1 70.5 59.4 4.2 14.6 21.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.4 17.7 10.8 106.3 67.3 55.3 1.4 4.8 17.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 10.0 13.5 10.6 104.5 66.3 53.8 0.6 6.3 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.1 12.3 10.3 105.5 63.6 52.7 2.0 6.1 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.1 17.2 12.4 108.0 63.5 53.6 2.3 5.9 22.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.2 17.4 12.8 114.6 68.4 57.8 1.6 7.4 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 45 55 100 14.1 18.7 13.3 142.2 73.8 62.8 2.0 7.6 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 11.7 13.9 12.5 116.7 68.1 56.8 0.9 8.0 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.0 16.9 12.2 120.4 72.9 58.7 0.2 2.4 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 28.1 30.2 15.2 122.4 69.8 58.3 6.4 12.5 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.2 12.8 10.6 106.9 66.8 55.2 0.7 4.1 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------