***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2018.-16.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 22.9 34.0 19.6 174.7 79.9 67.1 1.5 8.1 22.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 17.5 23.4 17.8 173.5 81.1 66.7 2.6 8.3 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 19.4 31.0 20.3 175.4 80.8 66.7 0.7 4.8 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 17.5 31.2 26.1 226.3 85.2 72.0 2.1 7.8 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 16.3 30.9 23.7 216.7 87.3 69.2 1.0 7.4 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 12.5 20.9 28.6 210.6 85.4 74.3 0.2 3.8 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 17.0 26.2 17.1 169.2 79.3 64.7 3.8 5.4 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 22.5 29.5 23.3 189.5 81.3 67.3 4.4 17.1 21.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 18.1 25.2 23.8 210.6 85.8 69.1 2.5 9.1 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 15.7 26.8 23.5 189.8 82.6 66.5 3.0 11.9 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 13.0 21.3 24.0 204.6 86.8 69.6 1.4 6.3 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 12.7 18.7 22.4 192.6 81.5 69.1 2.0 7.2 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 13.2 23.3 25.8 201.5 83.1 71.5 1.2 3.9 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 26.3 34.5 22.1 155.4 77.7 66.7 2.9 8.1 24.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 11.3 17.1 24.8 223.0 86.2 71.5 0.4 2.6 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 10.7 19.5 24.9 207.8 85.6 71.7 2.4 5.3 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 21.5 27.1 15.2 150.4 76.9 62.9 1.9 11.3 22.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 20.7 36.2 26.0 187.6 82.1 69.5 4.1 9.8 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 14.1 20.1 18.2 172.4 80.9 66.4 2.5 8.3 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 24.9 32.7 28.1 178.8 78.2 68.7 5.9 13.9 26.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 23.4 33.6 21.7 191.5 80.4 67.3 2.2 7.8 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 14.1 25.2 15.9 150.1 77.0 61.1 3.8 10.6 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 17.3 23.0 19.3 173.6 78.9 67.7 3.0 6.8 18.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 26.0 36.4 23.9 183.9 82.5 70.0 1.5 8.6 21.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 25.0 33.8 21.1 172.0 78.4 68.6 3.1 8.3 21.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 8.4 13.8 24.4 182.1 79.4 70.6 0.8 2.2 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 23.9 32.9 20.0 166.4 78.5 67.0 1.7 6.9 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 10.0 17.6 25.2 233.1 87.1 72.2 0.6 5.4 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 34.0 42.1 26.8 177.6 79.5 68.5 7.1 20.8 29.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 13.2 16.5 18.7 175.1 80.2 66.1 6.0 10.0 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------