***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2018.-09.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 12.0 21.4 26.8 206.1 85.1 77.9 0.1 4.7 10.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 12.0 14.8 23.7 203.6 84.7 78.3 1.3 3.7 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 15.7 24.6 26.5 215.9 87.3 80.8 1.1 4.8 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 23.1 33.0 24.1 173.1 82.0 75.3 4.1 9.2 20.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 18.0 23.8 27.2 215.3 86.6 80.4 2.6 6.2 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 14.0 27.1 24.5 183.4 82.8 75.3 4.1 7.7 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 16.1 22.1 22.3 185.3 82.5 74.9 1.0 6.7 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 38.8 54.2 31.0 206.6 86.5 79.3 9.6 18.3 28.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 18.7 28.4 31.2 253.1 93.7 84.6 2.1 9.3 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 10 90 100 19.5 35.2 34.8 236.1 91.9 84.0 2.8 7.8 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 17.8 25.6 26.7 213.7 87.0 79.7 3.8 8.8 18.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 24.3 35.0 25.0 201.4 84.1 77.2 4.5 9.4 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 18.3 23.3 22.3 186.2 79.4 72.5 3.2 11.9 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 14.9 29.9 32.3 204.6 86.6 79.1 1.8 7.7 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 9.1 13.2 16.8 146.5 78.4 70.8 0.6 2.2 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 17.3 22.8 23.0 188.2 82.3 74.9 3.7 7.2 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 12.9 27.2 23.9 204.1 85.9 77.4 1.0 4.2 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 20.6 35.0 34.0 207.7 88.9 80.7 4.1 11.6 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 19.4 25.4 24.2 202.1 85.0 79.2 1.6 7.6 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 24.1 33.4 29.4 173.0 82.4 72.5 6.5 15.3 21.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 14.1 27.6 30.4 243.6 90.7 83.2 1.4 5.9 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 15.1 21.6 23.3 187.8 83.3 75.6 3.5 9.7 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 14.7 19.9 24.2 186.9 83.7 77.6 2.0 3.7 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 16.6 34.2 30.7 215.8 88.9 80.7 1.5 6.6 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 14.4 21.9 28.3 206.4 83.8 78.1 0.2 4.3 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 7.5 12.7 13.6 129.0 69.6 63.4 1.2 6.3 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 10.8 13.9 26.8 198.1 82.8 76.8 0.4 3.8 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 14.9 18.5 22.0 165.6 80.9 73.9 1.5 7.4 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 29.2 46.7 32.2 194.0 86.4 77.7 12.2 19.1 27.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 12.4 16.6 23.3 196.8 83.3 77.9 0.7 4.9 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------